加息的更快、更高、更长

分享此页面到:

Finance & economics

财经板块

Inflation: Faster, higher, longer

通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长

The Fed delivers another jumbo rate rise, and it’s far from done

美联储再次大幅加息，而这离结束还早着呢

As recently as the start of June investors and analysts believed that a “jumbo” interest-rate rise for the Federal Reserve meant half a percentage point.

就在6月初，投资者和分析师还认为，0.5个百分点对美联储来说就算是“巨幅”加息了。

How quaint.

真是老古董。

After four straight increases of three-quarters of a percentage point—the latest on November 2nd—perceptions have changed.

在连续四次加息0.75个百分点(最近一次是在11月2日)之后，他们的看法发生了变化。

Indeed, a stockmarket rally in the two weeks before the announcement was rooted in the belief that the Fed may scale down to a half-point rate increase at its next meeting in December.

事实上，在美联储宣布加息之前的两周里，股市反弹的根源在于人们相信，美联储可能会在12月的下次会议上将加息幅度缩小至半个百分点。

What was once jumbo is now moderate.

曾经的巨幅加息现在变得温和起来。

Whether the Fed will in fact downshift to a half-point increase is a matter for debate.

美联储是否真的会将加息幅度降至0.5个百分点还有待讨论。

Bond pricing assigns roughly even odds to the central bank opting for that smaller increment versus yet another three-quarter-point increase.

受债券定价影响，央行选择较小幅加息的几率，和选择再次加息0.75个百分点的几率大致相同。

At a news conference following the Fed’s latest move, Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chairman, resisted tipping his hand in either direction.

在美联储最近一次举措后举行的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔拒绝就任何一个方向进行预测。

And for good reason: inflation figures for both October and November will be published before the Fed’s next meeting, and go a long way to determining what it does.

理由很充分：10月份和11月份的通胀数据都将在美联储下次会议之前公布，而这会对美联储的行动有很大的影响。

There is little sense in guessing the outcome before seeing that data.

所以在看到这些数据之前进行猜测没有什么意义。

But the focus on the size of the rise is also too narrow.

但对涨幅的关注也过于狭隘。

As Mr Powell notes, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy can be looked at in three dimensions: how quickly it raises rates, how high it raises them and how long it then keeps them there.

正如鲍威尔所指出的那样，美联储的收紧货币政策可以从三个维度来考察：加息的速度有多快、加息的幅度有多高以及维持利率的时间有多长。

The first dimension is already clear.

第一个维度已经很清楚了。

Although the Fed was late in launching its rate-rise cycle, it has moved with alacrity since starting, raising short-term borrowing rates from 0% in March to 3.75% now—its most aggressive increase in four decades.

尽管美联储启动加息周期的时间较晚，但它自加息以来一直行动迅速，将短期借款利率从3月份的0%上调至目前的3.75%，这是40年来最激进的加息。

The second dimension is also becoming clearer.

第二个维度也愈发清晰。

In September the median expectation of Fed officials was that rates would peak at 4.6% next year.

9月份，美联储官员的预期中值是利率将在明年达到4.6%的峰值。

Bond pricing now has the peak pegged at 5%, reflecting the fact that a variety of inflation indicators have stayed stubbornly high.

债券定价现在将峰值固定在5%，反映出各种通胀指标一直居高不下。

Mr Powell suggested that the Fed’s thinking is in line with the bond market.

鲍威尔暗示，美联储的想法与债券市场一致。

Even so, there is a logic for slightly smaller increases from here on.

即便如此，从现在开始小幅加息也是有道理的。

Just as an aeroplane slows before landing, so, ideally, does a central bank before settling on its peak rate.

就像飞机在着陆前减速一样，理想情况下，央行在确定最高利率之前也会放缓加息。

The biggest uncertainty surrounds the final dimension.

最大的不确定性在于最后一个维度。

How long will the Fed need to keep rates at a restrictive level?

美联储需要将利率维持在限制性水平多长时间？

It estimates that the long-term neutral level—that which is neither inflationary nor stimulative—is about 2.5%.

据美联储估计，既不会导致通胀，也不会刺激经济的长期中性利率水平，约为2.5%。

By this yardstick, nominal rates are already in restrictive territory.

按照这个标准，名义利率已经处于限制范围内。

But in real terms, with inflation still running at more than 8% annually, policy remains loose.

但实际上，在年通胀率仍在8%以上的情况下，政策还是有些宽松。

So the question is when the economy will react to them.

所以问题在于经济何时会对它们做出反应。

Some developments have been predictable.

有些发展是可以预见的。

Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year, exceeding 7%.

抵押贷款利率在过去一年上涨了一倍多，涨至7%以上。

That has led to a sharp fall in house purchases.

这导致房屋购买量骤降。

But the resilience of the labour market has been harder to predict.

但劳动力市场的韧性更难预测。

There are still nearly twice as many job openings as there are unemployed people, placing upward pressure on wages and, in turn, inflation.

职位空缺数量仍然是失业人数的近两倍，这给工资带来了上行压力，进而也带来了通胀。

At several points during the conference, Mr Powell emphasised that the Fed would keep rates high for as long as is required.

在发布会期间，鲍威尔曾多次强调，只要有必要，美联储将一直维持高利率。

Markets have priced in a pivot before the end of 2023.

市场已经消化了在2023年底前转向的预期。

The view is the Fed will trim rates in the second half of the year.

有人认为，美联储将在今年下半年降息。

But it has raised them faster and higher than investors had expected.

但美联储提高利率的速度和幅度都超出了投资者的预期。

There is a good chance it will also keep them high for longer than investors currently expect.

同样，美联储维持高利率的时间也很有可能超出投资者目前的预期。

来源：经济学人

参与评论

共有 0 条评论

1 2 3 4