Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Once more with feeling

梧桐树：再一次，带着感情

Investors had an awful time in 2022; this year may be almost as bad

2022年，投资者度过了一段糟糕的时光；今年可能也差不多

After a nightmarish 2022, shell-shocked investors have losses to recoup and plenty to ponder.

在经历了噩梦般的2022年之后，胆战心惊的投资者有很多损失需要弥补，也有很多事情需要思考。

There are asset-class allocations to be made, industries to favour or shun and every economic variable under the sun to forecast.

需要进行资产类别配置，需要看好或避开一些行业，还需要预测每一个经济变量。

Professional money managers have the extra headache of working out how to stop nervous clients racing for the exits.

此外，专业基金经理还需解决一个令人头疼的问题，那就是如何阻止紧张的客户争相退出。

But one question dominates the rest, and it is the impossible one that looms over every crash.

但有一个问题是重中之重，这个不可能的问题笼罩着每一次崩盘。

Is the worst over?

最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？

Economically, there is a clear answer: this year will be grim.

从经济上讲，答案很明确：今年将是严峻的一年。

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned on January 1st that a third of the global economy is likely to fall into recession in 2023.

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃1月1日警告称，2023年全球三分之一的经济体可能会陷入衰退。

Downturns have probably already begun in the euro zone and Britain.

欧元区和英国的经济衰退可能已经开始了。

In a recent poll of economists carried out by the University of Chicago and the Financial Times, 85% thought America would follow before the year is out.

在芝加哥大学和《金融时报》最近对经济学家进行的一项调查中，85%的人认为美国经济会在今年年底前开始衰退。

This does not guarantee another bloodbath—it could even mean the opposite.

这并不意味着一定会发生又一场大屠杀--甚至可能正相反。

In theory, markets are forward-looking, and fears of recession stalked the world for much of 2022.

从理论上讲，市场是具有前瞻性的，2022年的大部分时间里，对衰退的担忧一直困扰着世界各国。

Such a widely held consensus should be baked into today’s prices, meaning even a marginally better outlook would buoy prices.

如此广泛的共识应该反映在今天的价格中，意思是说即使前景只是略微好转也会提振价格。

Indeed, analysts at JPMorgan Asset Management use the strength of agreement that there will be a recession to argue that stock prices will in fact end 2023 higher than they started.

事实上，摩根大通资产管理公司的分析师利用认为经济将出现衰退的这一共识，辩称2023年底的股价实际上将高于开始时的水平。

They are not alone in their optimism.

并非只有他们持乐观态度。

Goldman Sachs’s researchers think share prices will fall in the near term, but recover by the end of the year.

高盛的研究人员认为，近期股价将会下跌，但到今年年底就会回升。

Deutsche Bank’s bullish lot reckon the S&P 500 index of large American firms will end the year 17% higher than it now stands.

德意志银行的看涨人士认为，到今年年底，美国大型企业的标准普尔500指数将比现在高出17%。

If this year offers a repeat of 2022, with heavy losses for both stocks and bonds, it will be an unusual one.

如果今年重蹈2022年的覆辙，股票和债券都遭受重创，那今年将会是不寻常的一年。

Stock prices mostly go up.

股票价格大多会上涨。

They rarely decline two years in a row.

股价很少会连续两年下降。

The S&P 500 last did so two decades ago during the bursting of the dotcom bubble.

标准普尔500指数上一次这样下降，还是在20年前互联网泡沫破裂的时候。

Last year’s bond rout was on account of the Federal Reserve raising rates at its fastest pace since the 1980s, which is unlikely to be repeated.

去年债券暴跌是因为美联储以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息，而这种情况不太可能重演。

Even so, there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead.

但即便如此，我们仍有理由相信未来还会有更多令人痛苦的问题。

The first is that shares, relative to their underlying earnings, remain expensive by historical standards.

第一个问题就是，以历史标准衡量，股票相对于其基本收益而言仍然很贵。

Despite last year’s plunge, the price-to-earnings ratio for “growth” stocks, those of companies promising big future profits, has fallen back only to where it was in 2019.

尽管去年股价暴跌，但“成长型”股票的市盈率，即那些未来有望获得巨大利润的公司的股票市盈率，也不过是回落到了2019年的水平。

This was its highest since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, a level which was reached after a decade-long bull market.

这是2007年至2009年全球金融危机以来的最高水平，是在长达10年的牛市之后达到的水平。

True, “value” stocks, those with a low price compared with the firm’s book assets, look more attractive.

诚然，与公司账面资产相比价格较低的“价值型”股票看起来更具吸引力。

But as recession sets in, both types are vulnerable to earnings downgrades that are, for the most part, yet to materialise.

但随着衰退的到来，这两类股票都很容易受到盈利下调的影响，而这些下调大多还没有发生。

Moreover, today’s valuations were reached during an unusual period: one in which central banks pumped endless liquidity into the market via quantitative easing (QE).

此外，今天的估值是在一个不同寻常的时期实现的：在这个时期，各国央行通过量化宽松(QE)向市场注入了无尽的流动性。

By buying government bonds with newly created money, the Fed and others depressed yields and nudged investors to seek returns in riskier assets, like stocks.

通过用新创造的货币购买政府债券，美联储和其他机构压低了收益率，促使投资者在股票等风险较高的资产中寻求回报。

Now these QE programmes are being kicked into reverse.

现在，这些量化宽松计划正在被逆转。

One consequence is that governments will rely much more on private investors to hold their debt.

一个后果是，各国政府将更多地依赖私人投资者来持有其债务。

In the fiscal year of 2022-23, America’s Treasury may need to borrow almost twice as much from investors as it did during each of the two years preceding the covid-19 pandemic, and four times the average in the five years before that.

在2022-23财年，美国财政部可能需要从投资者那里借入的资金，几乎是新冠肺炎疫情暴发前两年每年水平的两倍，是之前五年平均水平的四倍。

Even without central banks raising short-term interest rates, this glut could drive bond prices down and yields up.

即使各国央行不提高短期利率，这种过剩也可能压低债券价格，推高收益率。

Just as in 2022, stocks would therefore be left looking less attractive by comparison.

与2022年一样，相比之下，股票看起来就不那么有吸引力了。

The final reason for gloom is a divergence between economists and investors.

悲观的最后一个原因是经济学家和投资者之间的分歧。

Although wonks are betting on a recession, many punters still hope one can be avoided.

尽管书呆子们押注于经济衰退，但许多投机者仍希望经济衰退能够避免。

Markets expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to hit a peak of below 5% in the first half of this year, before declining.

市场预计美联储的基准利率将在今年上半年达到低于5%的峰值，然后开始下降。

The central bank’s governors disagree.

央行行长们对此持不同意见。

They project that the interest rate will end the year above 5%.

他们预计今年年底利率将超过5%。

Thus investors are betting either that inflation will fall to target more quickly than the Fed expects, or that the monetary guardians do not have the heart to inflict the pain it would take to get it down.

因此，投资者要么押注通胀降至目标的速度将比美联储预期的更快，要么押注货币监管机构没有勇气承受降低通胀所需的痛苦。

There is, of course, a chance they will be proved right.

当然，他们有可能被证明是正确的。

But markets spent much of 2022 underestimating the Fed’s hawkishness, only to be put in their place by Jerome Powell, the central bank’s governor, at meeting after meeting.

但在2022年的大部分时间里，市场都低估了美联储的鹰派强硬手段，最终让美联储行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次又一次的会议上提醒市场注意自己的位置。

If the pattern repeats, 2023 will be another miserable year for investors.

如果这种模式重演，2023年对投资者来说将又是悲惨的一年。

来源：经济学人