美国的通货膨胀热可能最终会消退

分享此页面到:

Finance & economics

财经板块

The US economy: Fed rest

美国经济：美联储休息

America’s inflation fever may be breaking at last

美国的通货膨胀热可能最终会消退

“We will stay the course until the job is done,” said Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, on December 14th, shortly after the central bank’s latest interest-rate rise.

12月14日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储最近一次加息后不久表示：“我们将坚持到底，直到任务完成。”

As a statement of intent, his words were both straightforward and utterly sensible.

作为一份意向声明，他的话既直截了当，又十分合理。

But what it means for the job to be done is becoming a matter of controversy.

但这对要完成的任务意味着什么，正成为一个有争议的问题。

Inflation remains uncomfortably high.

通货膨胀率仍然高得令人不安。

Meanwhile, the aggressive monetary tightening of the past year is only now filtering through to the economy, complicating assessments of whether the Fed has in fact done enough to rein in prices.

与此同时，过去一年大刀阔斧的货币紧缩直到现在才开始渗透到经济中，这导致针对美联储是否真的采取了足够的措施控制物价的评估变得复杂。

Promisingly, after a difficult two years, inflation does appear to be easing its grip on the American economy.

令人振奋的是，在经历了艰难的两年后，通胀对美国经济的影响似乎正在减弱。

Overall prices increased by a mere 0.1% month-on-month in November, according to data published on December 13th, making for that rarest of recent occurrences: a downside surprise.

12月13日公布的数据显示，11月份总体价格环比仅上涨了0.1%，这是近期最罕见的情况：令人惊讶的下降。

Most encouraging was a breakdown showing that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, had decelerated for a second consecutive month.

最令人鼓舞的是，一份细目数据显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率已连续第二个月减速。

Investors and analysts, scarred by America’s relentless run of inflation, have learned to restrain their hopes after a single month of rosy data.

投资者和分析师在美国持续的通货膨胀中伤痕累累，在一个月的乐观数据公布后，他们已经学会了抑制自己的希望。

Year-on-year rates of inflation remain elevated at 7.1% for headline inflation.

同比通胀率仍保持在7.1%的高位。

But the disinflation in November follows a similarly cheerful batch of data for October.

但在11月份出现通货紧缩之前，10月份的一批数据也同样令人欢欣鼓舞。

Optimism is on the rise, albeit still mostly of the cautious rather than the unbridled kind.

越来越多人开始持有乐观态度，尽管大多数人的乐观仍然很谨慎，而不是肆无忌惮。

Since mid-October the S&P 500 index of leading American firms has recovered some of the ground it lost earlier this year.

10月中旬以来，美国主要公司的标准普尔500指数已经收复了今年早些时候的部分失地。

Concerns are shifting to the prospect of weaker growth.

人们的担忧对象正转向增长疲软的前景。

Many economists forecast a recession early next year.

许多经济学家预测明年初将出现经济衰退。

For the Fed these countervailing forces create a tricky balance.

对美联储来说，这些相互抵消的力量创造了一种微妙的平衡。

On the one hand, it has just administered the sharpest tightening of monetary policy in four decades, lifting interest rates from a floor of 0% in March to more than 4% today.

一方面，它刚刚实施了40年来最严厉的货币紧缩政策，将利率从3月份的0%提高到今天的4%以上。

With inflation ebbing, it is prudent to slow the pace of rate increases.

随着通货膨胀的消退，放慢加息速度是谨慎的做法。

On the other hand, a perception of Fed softening risks adding fuel to the market rally.

另一方面，有关美联储政策走软的看法有可能为市场反弹推波助澜。

That, in turn, would cause financial conditions to ease, thereby placing upward pressure on inflation.

这反过来又会导致金融状况缓解，从而给通胀带来上行压力。

The Fed has tried to resolve this conundrum by maintaining its hawkish tone at the same time as tweaking its policies.

美联储试图通过在调整政策的同时保持其鹰派基调来解决这个难题。

On December 14th the Fed raised rates by half a percentage point, ending a string of jumbo three-quarter-point increases.

12月14日，美联储将利率上调了0.5个百分点，结束了一系列大幅加息0.75个百分点的局面。

Most Fed officials believe that they will raise rates to more than 5% next year and refrain from cutting rates until 2024, according to the central bank’s latest projections.

根据美联储的最新预测，大多数美联储官员认为，他们明年将会把利率提高到5%以上，而且在2024年之前不会降息。

“Historical experience cautions strongly against prematurely easing,” said Mr Powell.

鲍威尔表示：“历史经验强烈告诫不要过早放松。”

Strikingly, many investors think the Fed will end up being more dovish.

令人惊讶的是，许多投资者都认为美联储最终会变得更加鸽派。

Bond pricing suggests that rates will peak at less than 5% and that the central bank will start cutting them before the end of 2023.

债券定价表明，利率峰值将低于5%，美联储将在2023年底之前开始降息。

Ultimately, the decision will come down to the data.

归根结底，美联储会作何决定将取决于数据。

Prices of consumer goods have started falling as pandemic-era shortages melt away.

随着疫情时期的短缺现象逐渐消失，消费品价格已经开始下降。

Housing prices are also trending lower.

房价也呈下降趋势。

The big lingering concern is whether a tight labour market will push incomes and, by extension, prices higher.

一大挥之不去的担忧是，紧张的劳动力市场是否会推高收入，进而推高物价。

Investors are betting that wage increases will slow as the economy weakens.

投资者押注，随着经济走软，工资增长将放缓。

The Fed, understandably, is not popping the champagne just yet.

美联储目前还没有开香槟庆祝，这是可以理解的。

来源：经济学人

参与评论

共有 0 条评论

1 2 3 4