Finance & economics
财经板块
Inflation: The drag from lags
通货膨胀：滞后带来的拖累
Rates are rising at unprecedented speed.
利率正以前所未有的速度上升。
How long until they bite?
在它们产生严重影响之前，还有多长时间？
If you want to impress central bankers, inject “long and variable lags” into a conversation and heave a heavy sigh.
如果你想给央行官员留下深刻印象，那就在对话中提到“漫长而多变的滞后”，然后沉重地叹一口气。
The phrase, coined by Milton Friedman, a Nobel-prizewinning economist, is sophisticated shorthand for the delayed and uncertain effects of monetary policy.
这个词由诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼首创，是对货币政策的延迟和不确定效应的复杂缩写。
Raising rates, as most central banks are now doing, should lead to slower growth and lower inflation.
大多数央行现在正在实施的加息，应该会导致经济增长放缓和通胀降低。
But it can take time for the full impact to be felt.
但要感受到加息的全面影响还需要时间。
Hence Friedman’s idea of a long lag.
因此，弗里德曼提出了长期滞后的观点。
The variability, meanwhile, refers to the lack of a predictable interval between raise and result.
同时，可变性指的是无法预测加息和结果之间的差距。
Lags present an acute challenge at the moment.
目前，滞后是一个严峻的挑战。
Tightening in the past few decades has been gradual, helping to mitigate uncertainty.
过去几十年的紧缩措施一直是渐进的，有助于降低不确定性。
This time central banks are furiously ratcheting up rates.
但这一次，各国央行都在疯狂地加息。
The Federal Reserve is on course to raise them from a floor of 0% to 4% by the end of this year, its steepest tightening in four decades.
美联储正按计划在今年年底前将利率从0%提高到4%，这是40年来最大幅度的紧缩。
Economists including Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the Fed and a new Nobel laureate, estimate lags between monetary policy and inflation can last as long as two years.
美联储前主席、新任诺贝尔奖得主本·伯南克等经济学家估计，货币政策与通胀之间的滞后可能长达两年之久。
The result is that America may be digesting the jumbo rate rises of the past few months well into 2024, by which time the economic picture will look different.
其结果是，美国过去几个月大幅加息的影响可能会持续到2024年，到那时，经济形势将会发生变化。
This is one reason why some economists are calling for central banks to switch to smaller rate rises, if any.
这就是一些经济学家呼吁各国央行如果要加息，就采取小幅加息的原因之一。
They want policymakers to survey the impact thus far in order to avoid needlessly adding to future pain.
他们希望政策制定者调查迄今为止加息的影响，以避免徒增未来的痛苦。
Yet the mere existence of lags cannot be an argument for inaction.
然而，存在滞后这一点不能成为不作为的理由。
They are a known unknown.
滞后是我们已知会出现的未知数。
Their precise duration may be uncertain but the fact that there will be a delay is well understood.
滞后持续的确切时间可能不确定，但滞后一定会出现这一点是众所周知的。
Any decent model contains assumptions about this.
任何像样的经济模型都会预设滞后。
Fed officials expect to shift from raising to cutting rates in 2024 and 2025.
美联储官员预计将在2024年和2025年从加息转向降息。
But they also expect inflation to continue to recede in both those years—an indication of how lags are baked into their forecasts.
但他们也预计通胀将在这两年继续降低--这表明他们的预测是考虑到了滞后的。
Moreover, an increase in central-bank’s transparency may be compressing lags.
此外，央行透明度的提高可能会缩短滞后时间。
In America mortgage rates had increased by a full percentage point even before the Fed had raised short-term rates.
在美国，甚至在美联储提高短期利率之前，抵押贷款利率就已经上升了整整一个百分点。
This has not happened in previous cycles, and represents the fastest pricing-in of expectations in at least four decades.
这在之前的经济周期中从未发生过，而且是至少40年来最快的预期定价。
As a result, the housing market has had at least half a year to respond to higher mortgage rates.
房地产市场因此至少有半年的时间来应对抵押贷款利率的上升。
Sure enough, home sales, prices and new construction have all started to fall.
果不其然，房屋销售量、价格和新开工量都开始下降。
In a way, the Fed is lagging the market: its rate increases are, in part, ratifying expectations that are already influencing activity.
在某种程度上，美联储正在落后于市场：它的加息措施在一定程度上是在认可已经在影响经济活动的预期。
None of this is to minimise the risk from lags.
所有这些都不是为了将滞后带来的风险降至最低。
Friedman believed they all but doomed counter-cyclical interventions.
弗里德曼认为，它们几乎注定了反周期干预的失败。
He viewed such attempts as “disturbances with a peculiarly high potential for mischief”.
他认为这样的尝试是“极有可能造成危害的干扰”。
Central bankers are more confident.
而央行官员们对此的信心要高一些。
But persistent inflation does underscore Friedman’s point about the challenges of getting policy right, whether tightening or easing.
但持续的通胀确实突显了弗里德曼观点的重要性，即无论是紧缩还是宽松政策，正确实施政策都具有挑战性。
Today’s woes stem, in part, from aggressive stimulus in 2020 and 2021.
今天的困境部分源于2020年和2021年的激进刺激政策。
The mischief, in other words, can cut both ways.
换言之，这种干扰可以在两方面都起作用。
Doves worry that excessive tightening will lead to a bad recession.
鸽派担心过度紧缩将导致严重的经济衰退。
Hawks fear that a premature halt will lead to continued bad inflation.
而鹰派担心，过早停止加息将导致持续的恶性通胀。
Both worry the Fed will get its timing wrong again, just in diametrically opposite directions.
两方都担心美联储会再次抓错时机，只不过担心的方向截然相反。
来源：经济学人
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