Finance & economics

财经板块

Housing: Hot property

住房：炙手可热的房地产

Institutional investors are snapping up family homes

机构投资者正在抢购家庭住宅

Housing is the world’s biggest asset class.

住房是世界上最大的资产类别。

But until recently renting out family homes was a mom-and-pop cottage business, seen as uninvestable by Wall Street.

但一直以来，出租家庭住房都是华尔街视为不可投资的小生意，这种情况直到最近才有所改变。

When Blackstone, a private-equity giant, floated the idea of creating vast portfolios of homes after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, banks refused to lend to it.

当私募股权巨头黑石集团在2007-2009年全球金融危机后提出构建大量住房投资组合的想法时，银行拒绝向其放贷。

The firm ran the idea by Sam Zell, a property mogul who sold Blackstone his $39bn office empire before the financial crisis.

该公司的想法来源是房地产大亨山姆·泽尔，他在金融危机前将其价值390亿美元的办公帝国卖给了黑石集团。

“No way,” he retorted.

“不可能，”他反驳道。

For an investor routinely splurging on hotel chains and swanky office towers, the buy-to-let business seemed like small fry by comparison.

对于一个经常在连锁酒店和豪华写字楼上挥霍的投资者来说，买房出租业务似乎微不足道。

Blackstone went ahead despite Mr Zell’s advice.

黑石不顾泽尔的建议继续推进。

A decade on from the first purchase in Phoenix, Arizona—an outlay worth $100,000—the experiment has morphed into an institutional-grade asset class.

自从该公司首次在亚利桑那州凤凰城花费10万美元购买房产以来，十年过去了，这个实验已经演变成了一个机构级的资产类别。

Last year interest in the sector reached fever pitch.

去年，人们对该行业的兴趣达到了狂热的程度。

According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a research firm, big investors committed at least $45bn to buying single-family homes in America, up from $3bn the year before.

研究公司约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司称，大型投资者为在美国购买独栋住宅调拨了至少450亿美元，而前一年调拨的资金为30亿美元。

Even as housing markets cool, investment is pouring in, with firms including Goldman Sachs and KKR following in Blackstone’s footsteps.

即使房地产市场降温，投资仍源源不断地涌入，高盛集团和KKR集团等公司也在追随黑石的脚步。

It is easy to see why.

原因显而易见。

Between 2016 and 2021, annual returns from family rentals (of 21%) have outperformed those of housing for old folk (7%), offices (5%), shopping malls (-1%) and even apartments (12%), according to Green Street, another research firm.

另一家研究公司Green Street的数据显示，从2016年到2021年，家庭租赁的年回报率(21%)超过了老年人住房(7%)、写字楼(5%)、购物中心(-1%)，甚至还超过了公寓(12%)。

In the past decade, the value of homes owned by institutions has doubled to $4.7trn, a figure that towers over the estimated value of America’s offices, at $1.9trn.

在过去十年间，机构拥有的房屋价值翻了一番，达到了4.7万亿美元，超过了美国写字楼1.9万亿美元的估值。

Unlike mom-and-pop investors, who tend to own no more than a handful of homes, the biggest institutions hold tens of thousands, which are offered renovated and have around-the-clock maintenance.

不同于通常只拥有几套住房的散户投资者，最大的机构拥有数万套住房，它们能够享受翻新和全天候的维护服务。

Invitation Homes, America’s largest family landlord, says it spends an average of $39,000 fixing up each one, kitting them out with new flooring, upgraded plumbing and the latest tech, such as video doorbells and smart locks.

美国最大的家庭房东Invitation Homes称，平均每栋房子要花3.9万美元来装修、安装新地板、升级管道和最新技术，比如视频门铃和智能锁。

These goodies are attracting richer tenants.

这些好东西正在吸引更富有的租户。

Between 2010 and 2018, those with incomes of above $75,000 accounted for three-quarters of the growth in renters.

2010至2018年间，收入超过7.5万美元的人占到了新增租户的四分之三。

Covid-19 accelerated this, as bidding wars forced high-earners to rent.

在竞标战迫使高收入者租房之际，新冠肺炎又助长了这一趋势。

Invitation Homes says its residents now have an annual household income of above $131,000, nearly twice the country’s median.

Invitation Homes称，其住户目前的家庭年收入在13.1万美元以上，几乎是美国中值的两倍。

There is plenty of room for further expansion.

进一步扩张的空间很大。

In America, real-estate investment trusts (REITS) own just 1% of single-family rentals, compared with 5-10% of offices and warehouses, 15% of housing for old people and 50% of shopping malls.

在美国，房地产投资信托基金(REITS)在独户住宅租赁市场仅占1%，相比之下，写字楼和仓库的占比为5%-10%，老年人住房的占比为15%，购物中心的占比为50%。

Big investors are also starting to build more, rather than just buying up existing stock.

大型投资者也开始建造更多的房屋，而不仅仅是购买现有的房屋。

Last year, they built a record 7,705 family units, up from an average of 5,500 in 2015-20.

去年，他们创下纪录，建造了7705套家庭住房，高于2015-2020年5500套的平均水平。

By 2030, MetLife Investment Management, an asset manager, expects institutions to have amassed 7.6m homes, more than two-fifths of all family rentals.

资产管理公司大都会人寿投资管理公司预计，到2030年，各大机构将积攒760万套住房，占所有家庭租赁住房数量的五分之二以上。

The trend has also spread to Europe.

这一趋势也蔓延到了欧洲。

Investors such as Aviva and Legal & General are building thousands of rental homes across Britain, which now has more than 73,000 “build to rent” properties.

英杰华集团和英国法通保险公司等投资者正在英国各地建造数千套租赁住房，目前英国有超过7.3万套“为租而建”的房产。

Institutional investors are also gobbling up property in Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and the Nordic markets, which have higher shares of renters than other rich countries.

机构投资者也在大举买入德国、爱尔兰、荷兰和北欧市场的房地产，这些市场的租赁人比例高于其他富裕国家。

What’s behind the explosive growth?

这种爆炸性增长背后的原因是什么？

One explanation is that ageing millennials offer a growing market.

一种解释是，老龄化的千禧一代提供了一个不断增长的市场。

As they approach their late 30s and early 40s—a sweet spot for landlords—many want better schools for their children or space for pets, or finally have enough money to dump their housemates.

当他们快到40岁左右（成为房东的最佳年龄）时，许多人希望让孩子上更好的学校，或者为宠物提供空间，或者终于有足够的钱来摆脱合租。

In America, population growth in this age category will nearly double over the next five years.

在美国，这一年龄段的人口增长将在未来五年内增长近一倍。

Ageing baby-boomers are also renting in higher numbers.

年纪渐长的婴儿潮一代中也有更多的人租房。

In England, the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 who are renting has almost doubled since 2011.

在英格兰，55岁至64岁的租房人口比例自2011年以来几乎翻了一番。

Declining housing affordability helps.

住房负担能力的下降起到了帮助作用。

Those unable to buy homes have little choice but to rent, meaning landlords are confident of their ability to find and keep new tenants, especially for entry-level homes.

那些买不起房的人别无选择，只能租房，因此房东有信心能够找到并留住新的租户，特别是最低层次住房的租户。

In America, at least 420,000 starter homes were built each year in the 1970s.

20世纪70年代时，美国每年至少建造42万套首购屋。

Last year, just 93,000 were.

而去年只有9.3万套。

Thus rents continue to climb.

因此，租金继续攀升。

Across the country, those for family homes rose by more than 13% in June compared with a year earlier.

全美6月份家庭住宅的租金同比上涨了13%以上。

In Orlando, they were up by 23%.

奥兰多的租金上涨了23%。

In Miami, by more than a third.

迈阿密上涨了三分之一以上。

Despite rising rents, Wall Street landlords are not immune to economic uncertainty.

尽管租金不断上涨，华尔街的房东依旧受到了经济不确定性的影响。

Inflation means the cost of renovating and maintaining homes is rising.

通货膨胀导致翻新和维护房屋的成本不断上升。

Invitation Homes says the amount it spent on these things rose by nearly 8% in the second quarter of this year.

Invitation Homes称，今年第二季度，该公司在这些方面的支出增长了近8%。

Construction costs have also risen, posing risk for investors building from scratch.

建筑成本也有所上升，给白手起家的投资者带来了风险。

Prices for building materials, including concrete, lumber and steel, have surged by 38% since the start of 2020.

自2020年初以来，包括混凝土、木材和钢材在内的建筑材料价格飙升了38%。

Interest-rate rises are another worry; as the market softens, investors are taking a more cautious approach.

利率上升是另一个令人担忧的问题；随着市场走软，投资者正在采取更为谨慎的做法。

Home Partners of America, owned by Blackstone, announced in August that it would pause home purchases in 38 cities, markets that represent 5% of its activity.

黑石集团旗下的Home Partners of America在8月份宣布，将暂停在38个城市的购房活动，这些交易占其活动的5%。

Economic cycles are inevitable.

经济周期是不可避免的。

Rents are unlikely to continue to climb at a record pace.

租金不太可能继续以创纪录的速度攀升。

Yet history suggests that residential rents are more resilient than those from other property types, especially in periods when supply is tight.

然而，历史表明，住宅租金比其他房地产类型的租金更具弹性，特别是在供应紧张的时期。

From 1974 to 1985, another period of high inflation, rents actually increased by 7-12% a year, notes Jay Parsons, an economist at RealPage, a data firm.

数据公司RealPage的经济学家杰伊·帕森斯指出，1974年到1985年（另一个高通胀时期）间，租金实际上每年上涨7%-12%。

Even as homebuyer demand crashed during the global financial crisis, demand from residential tenants did not waver.

即使在全球金融危机期间，购房者需求急剧下降，住宅租户的需求也没有减弱。

Although the housing splurge of institutional investors may calm a bit, it is unlikely to cease.

尽管机构投资者的购房热潮可能会稍稍平息，却不太可能完全停止。

来源：经济学人