投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Recurring nightmares

梧桐树：噩梦重现


How should investors prepare for repeat inflation shocks?

投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?

Buy stocks so you can dream, buy bonds so you can sleep—or so the saying goes.

俗话说，买股票是为了做梦，买债券是为了睡觉。

A wise investor will aim to maximise their returns relative to risk, defined as volatility in the rate of return, and therefore hold some investments that will do well in good times and some in bad.

明智的投资者会致力于最大化其相对于风险的回报(即回报率的波动性)，因此他们持有的投资既有在景气时期表现良好的，也有在不景气时期也会表现良好的。

Stocks surge when the economy soars; bonds climb during a crisis.

经济腾飞时，股市会暴涨；而在危机期间，债券会攀升。

A mix of the two—often 60% stocks and 40% bonds—should help investors earn a nice return, without too much risk.

这两者的组合--比例通常是60%的股票和40%的债券--应该会帮助投资者在没有太大风险的情况下获得不错的回报。

Such a mix has been a sensible strategy for much of the past two decades.

在过去20年的大部分时间里，这样的组合一直是一种明智的策略。

Since 2000 the average correlation between American stocks and Treasuries has been staunchly negative, at -0.5.

自2000年以来，美国股票和国债之间一直是负相关，平均值为-0.5。

But the recent rout in both stock and bond prices has wrong-footed investors.

但最近股票和债券价格的暴跌让投资者措手不及。

In the first half of the year the S&P 500 shed 20.6% and an aggregate measure of the price of Treasuries lost 8.6%.

今年上半年，标准普尔500指数下跌了20.6%，衡量美国国债价格的一个综合指标下跌了8.6%。

Is this an aberration or the new normal?

这是一种反常现象还是新常态？

The answer depends on whether higher inflation is here to stay.

答案取决于较高的通胀是否会持续下去。

When economic growth drives asset prices, stocks and bonds diverge.

当推动资产价格的是经济增长时，股票和债券就会出现分化。

When inflation drives them, stocks and bonds often move in tandem.

而当推动它们的是通胀时，股票和债券往往会同步变动。

On August 10th American inflation data showed prices did not rise in July.

8月10日，美国通胀数据显示，7月份物价并未上涨。

Stocks soared—the S&P 500 rose by 2.1%—and short-term Treasury prices climbed, too.

股市暴涨了--标准普尔500指数上涨了2.1%--短期国债价格也有所攀升。

For as long as central bankers kept a lid on inflation, investors were protected.

只要央行官员控制住了通胀，投资者就能受到保护。

Yet look back before 2000, to a period when inflation was more common, and you see that stocks and bonds frequently moved in the same direction.

然而，回顾2000年前通胀发生频率更高的时期，你会发现股票和债券的走势经常是一致的。

AQR Capital Management, an investment firm, notes that in the 20th century the correlation between stocks and bonds was more often positive than negative.

投资公司AQR资本管理公司指出，在20世纪，股票和债券之间往往为正相关。

Lots of hedge-fund types, pension-fund managers and private-equity barons are therefore worrying about the potential for repeat inflation shocks.

因此，许多对冲基金公司、养老基金经理和私募股权大亨都在担心可能会反复发生通胀冲击。

Last year the debate in the halls of finance was about whether inflation would be “transitory” or “persistent”; this year it is about whether it is “cyclical” or “structural”.

去年，金融大厅里的人都在辩论通胀是“暂时性的”还是“持续性的”；今年则在辩论它是“周期性的”还是“结构性的”。

At the heart of this is not whether central bankers can bring down prices, but whether the underlying inflation dynamic has changed.

问题的核心不是央行官员能否压低价格，而是潜在的通胀动态是否发生了变化。

Those in the “structural” camp argue that the recent period of low inflation was an accident of history—helped by relatively calm energy markets, globalisation and Chinese demographics, which pushed down goods prices by lowering the cost of labour.

“结构性”阵营的人辩称，近期的低通胀是历史的意外--这得益于较为平静的能源市场、全球化和中国的人口结构，后者通过降低劳动力成本压低了商品价格。


These tailwinds have turned.

但这些顺风已经转向了。

Covid-19 messed up supply chains; war and sabre-rattling are undermining globalisation.

新冠肺炎扰乱了供应链；战争和武力威胁正在削弱全球化进程。

Manoj Pradhan, formerly of Morgan Stanley, points out that China’s working-age population has peaked.

曾就职于摩根士丹利的马诺杰·普拉丹指出，中国的劳动年龄人口已经达到顶峰。

Jeremy Grantham, a bearish hedge-fund investor, fears that the switch to renewables will be slow and costly, and that lower investment in fossil-fuel production will make it hard for energy firms to ramp up supply, increasing the risk of energy-price spikes.

看空对冲基金的投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆担心，向可再生能源的转变会费时又费钱，化石燃料生产投资减少将使能源公司难以增加供应，从而增加能源价格飙升的风险。

All this, the structuralists argue, means the current inflation shock is likely to be the first of many: central bankers will be playing whack-a-mole for a while yet.

结构主义者辩称，这一切意味着，当前的通胀冲击很可能是许多冲击中的第一个：央行官员们还得再打一会儿地鼠。

Recurrent inflation would upend 20 years of portfolio-management strategy.

反复出现的通胀将颠覆20年来的投资组合管理策略。

If the correlation between stocks and bonds shifts from -0.5 to +0.5 the volatility of a “60/40” portfolio increases by around 20%.

如果股票和债券之间的相关系数从-0.5变成+0.5，“60/40”投资组合的波动率就会增加20%左右。

In a bid to avoid being wrong-footed once again, investors are updating their plans.

为了避免再次手足无措，投资者正在更新他们的计划。

As Barry Gill of UBS’s asset-management arm puts it, the task is “to realign your portfolio around this new reality”.

正如瑞银资产管理部门的巴里·吉尔所说，要做的任务是“围绕这一新的现实情况重新调整投资组合”。

What assets will allow investors to sleep soundly in this new reality?

什么样的资产才能让投资者在这种新的现实情况下睡得安稳？

Cryptocurrencies once looked like an interesting hedge, but this year they have fallen and risen in lockstep with stocks.

加密货币曾经看起来像是一种有趣的对冲，但今年它们的涨跌与股市同步。

A recent paper by KKR, a private asset-management firm, argues, perhaps unsurprisingly, that illiquid alternatives, like private equity and credit, are a good way to diversify.

私人资产管理公司KKR最近的一篇论文认为，私募股权和信贷等非流动性的替代选择是扩大业务范围的好方法，这或许并不令人意外。

But that may be an illusion: illiquid assets are rarely marked-to-market, and are exposed to the same underlying economic forces as stocks and bonds.

但这可能是一种错觉：非流动性资产很少按市值计价，可能受到的经济力量影响还与股票和债券相同。

There are other options.

还有其他选择。

AQR suggests stock-picking strategies where success has little to do with broader economic conditions, such as “long-short” equity investing (going long on one firm and short on another).

AQR建议采用几乎不依靠整体经济状况就能成功的选股策略，例如“多空”股票投资(即做多一家公司，做空另一家公司)。

Meanwhile, commodities are the natural choice for those worried about a disorderly green transition, since a basket of them appears to be uncorrelated with stocks and bonds over long periods.

与此同时，对于那些担心无序绿色转型的人来说，大宗商品是自然而然的选择，因为从长期来看，一篮子大宗商品似乎与股票和债券无关。

In the search for new ways to minimise risk, investors dreaming of high returns will have to get creative.

在寻找将风险降至最低的新方法时，梦想高回报的投资者将必须发挥创造力。

That, at least, should tire them out by the end of the day.

总之，这应该至少会让他们筋疲力尽。

来源：可可英语

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