A new migration crisis is brewing in Europe.

一场新的移民危机正在欧洲酝酿。

Prepare for populism.

为民粹主义做好准备。

Lovely place, Belgrade.

贝尔格莱德是个不错的地方。

More migrants will undoubtedly land on Europe’s shores, and with them more such tensions.

毫无疑问，会有更多的移民登陆欧洲海岸，随之而来的，是紧张局势的加剧。

Afghans and Syrians are still fleeing desperate situations in their countries.

阿富汗人和叙利亚人仍试图逃离本国的绝望局势。

Joining them are Asians and Africans who have fallen into poverty because of soaring food and fuel prices, both linked to the war in Ukraine.

加入这一行列的还有亚洲人和非洲人，他们因乌克兰战争导致的食品和燃料价格飙升而陷入贫困。

Covid-19 seems to have caused migrants to delay their attempts at reaching Europe, not abated them.

疫情似乎让移民推迟了前往欧洲的计划，而不是让他们取消计划。

Climate change will no doubt prompt more to try their luck.

气候变化也促使更多人碰碰运气。

For now it is causing unseasonably warm weather, helping keep sea- and land-crossing routes open for longer, points out Hugo Brady of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development in Vienna.

维也纳国际移民政策发展中心的雨果·布雷迪指出，就目前而言，气候变化正在导致反常的温暖天气出现，有利于海上和陆地通道在更长时间内保持畅通。

Europe is in little mood to take them in.

欧洲没有心情接纳这些移民。

What generosity of spirit might exist has been soaked up by the arrival of nearly 5m Ukrainians recorded as having received asylum-like protection in the EU since the start of the war.

据记录，自战争开始以来，近500万乌克兰人在欧盟获得了类似庇护的保护，这些人的到来消磨了欧洲人可能的慷慨。

In contrast to 2015, the economy is heading for recession, crimping both potential job opportunities for migrants and the tax receipts to support them.

与2015年的情况明显不同的是，目前经济正在走向衰退，导致移民潜在的就业机会减少，能够用于支持他们的税收收入也在减少。

Some places are already struggling.

一些国家已经陷入苦苦挣扎。

In Austria asylum-seekers have been put up in tents, to the dismay of NGOs.

在奥地利，寻求庇护者被安置在帐篷里，这让非政府组织感到沮丧。

In the Netherlands, a baby died in a migrant-reception centre in August.

8月份，一名婴儿在荷兰的移民接待中心死亡。

An increase in small boats crossing the Channel prompted Britain to agree to pay France to patrol its beaches to detect and prevent migrants setting off.

横渡英吉利海峡的小船增加，促使英国同意付钱给法国，让他们在海滩巡逻，以监视移民，防止他们离开。

The revival of the migrant crisis, even if on a smaller scale than the previous one, poses two problems for Europe.

尽管这次移民危机的规模比上一次要小，但它的卷土重来给欧洲带来了两个问题。

The first is at national level.

第一个问题是国家层面的问题。

Helping Ukrainian women and children flee Russia’s bombs is popular enough with voters.

帮助乌克兰妇女和儿童逃离俄罗斯轰炸的候选人在选民中很受欢迎。

Taking in what are often male economic migrants from farther afield is not.

而赞成从更远的地方接收男性经济移民的候选人无人问津。

Angela Merkel, then German chancellor, in 2015 said that "Wir schaffen das" - we can manage.

2015年，时任德国总理安格拉·默克尔表示，“Wir schaffen das”——“我们可以应付”。

Few share that sentiment today.

如今，几乎没有人再赞成这种想法。

Populist politicians have gained ground across the bloc.

民粹主义政客在整个欧盟越来越为人们所接受。

Take Sweden, once relatively welcoming to asylum-seekers: it is now run by a government that relies on support from an anti-migrant party.

以曾经相对欢迎寻求庇护者的瑞典为例：它现在的政府依赖于一个反移民政党的支持。

The second problem is one of co-ordination.

第二个问题是协调问题。

Europe’s approach to dealing with migration is a mess of national and EU policies.

欧洲处理移民问题要求执行一系列国家和欧盟的政策。

Southern Europeans resent rules that force potential refugees to apply for asylum in the first country they arrive at, often a coastal one like Greece and Italy.

南欧人，通常是像希腊和意大利这样的沿海国家的人民，对潜在难民必须在他们到达的第一个国家申请庇护的规定感到不满。

They would like their fellow EU members to share the burden by agreeing to resettle migrants (most of whom would rather end up in places like Germany anyway).

他们希望欧盟其他成员国同意重新安置移民，以分担他们的负担（这些移民中大部分人都希望去德国这样的地方）。

Northerners will agree only to a voluntary scheme, which has not worked well.

北欧人只同意自愿接收移民的计划，但这并不奏效。

That has eroded trust.

种种问题侵蚀了人与人之间的信任。

Southerners for their part are accused of flouting the rules, by mistreating asylum-seekers and nudging them to travel to other EU countries to seek refuge.

南欧人被指控藐视规则，虐待寻求庇护者，以及怂恿他们前往其他欧盟国家寻求庇护。

As a result border controls that were once abolished within the bloc have made an unwelcome return in many countries.

其结果是，在欧盟内部一度被废除的边境管制被迫在许多国家卷土重来。

Improvements since 2015 have largely focused on keeping migrants out.

自2015年以来，欧洲改善移民问题主要是采取将移民拒之门外的做法。

Frontex, the EU’s border agency, has been bolstered.

欧盟的边境机构Frontex得到了支持。

Countries such as Libya and Turkey, through which many migrants come to Europe, have been paid to help stem the flow - even at the cost of supporting dodgy regimes.

利比亚和土耳其等国——许多移民是通过这些国家进入欧洲的——能够通过阻止移民涌入得到报酬——即使是以支持狡诈的政权为代价。

But having failed to block migrant arrivals, Europe will now have to deal with them.

但由于未能成功阻止移民的进入，欧洲现在将不得不处理相关的问题。

That is where it failed in 2015, and it still does not have a plan.

这就是欧洲2015年的失败之处，而现在，它仍然没有做好规划。

来源：可可英语