Finance and economics

财经版块

Apart, together

一起分开生活

The world economy has entered a new era, that of the hermit consumer.

世界经济进入了一个新时代：隐居消费时代。

In some ways covid-19 was a blip.

在某些方面，新冠肺炎只是暂时性的问题。

After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows.

富裕国家的失业率在2020年飙升后，又迅速降至大流行前的低点。

Countries re-attained their pre-covid GDP in short order.

各国GDP也很快恢复到了疫情前的水平。

And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently.

然而，在封控解除两年多后，至少有一个变化是持久的：富裕国家的消费者习惯已经发生了决定性的变化，这种变化可能是永久的。

Welcome to the age of the hermit.

欢迎来到隐居时代。

Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services was rising steadily.

在新冠之前，服务业占消费者支出的份额稳步上升。

As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning.

随着社会变得更加富裕，消费者寻求更多的奢侈体验、医疗保健和财务规划服务。

Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed.

然后在2020年，从酒店住宿到理发的各类服务支出大幅下降。

With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

人们更长时间地待在家里，对商品的需求随之激增，比如电脑设备和健身自行车。

Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains below its pre-covid level.

三年过去了，在服务方面的支出占比仍低于疫情前的水平。

Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still.

与疫情前的趋势相比，下降的幅度更大。

Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019.

富裕世界的消费者每年在服务上的支出比2019年的预期水平要少约6000亿美元。

In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation.

人们尤其对户外休闲活动的兴趣降低，包括酒店餐饮和各类娱乐。

Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.

资金被重新用于购买商品，从椅子和冰箱等耐用品，到衣服、食物和葡萄酒等商品。

In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become ingrained.

在封控时间较短的国家，隐居习惯还没有变得根深蒂固。

Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks pathological.

然而，在其他地方，隐居行为已变得有些不太正常。

In the Czech Republic, which was whacked by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend.

在遭受新冠重创的捷克共和国，服务业所占的消费份额比疫情前的趋势低3个百分点。

America is not far off.

美国也快了。

Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes.

日本用于客户招待等商务目的的餐厅预订量下降了50%。

Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.

那个摇摇晃晃地走在东京娱乐区的醉醺醺的上班族真是可怜：他已经是濒危物种了。

At first glance, the figures are difficult to reconcile with the anecdotes.

第一眼看过去，这些数字与人们所说的情况并不相符。

Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant?

在餐厅订位子难道不是比以前更难了吗？

Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained supply.

然而，拥挤的真正根源不是极高的需求，而是有限的供应。

These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019.

如今，想在酒店餐饮业工作的人越来越少，在美国，该行业的就业人数仍低于2019年的水平。

And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did.

大流行的破坏意味着，许多本应在2020年和2021年开业的新酒店和新餐厅并没有开成。

The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.

英国的酒店数量（约为1万家）自2019年以来一直没有增长。

Firms are noticing the $600bn shift.

各家公司注意到这6000亿美元正在逐渐溜走。

In a recent earnings call an executive at Darden Restaurants, which runs one of America’s finest restaurant chains, Olive Garden, noted that, relative to pre-covid times, “we’re probably in that 80% range in terms of traffic”.

在最近的一次财报电话会议上，经营着美国最好的连锁餐厅之一“橄榄花园”的达顿餐饮公司的一名高管指出，相对于疫情前，“我们的客流量可能在80%左右”。

At Home Depot, which sells tools to improve homes, revenue is up by about 15% on 2019 in real terms.

而家居建材工具销售商家得宝的收入比2019年实际增长了约15%。

Goldman Sachs, a bank, tracks the share prices of companies that benefit when people stay at home (such as e-commerce firms) and those that thrive when people are out (such as airlines).

高盛银行追踪了那些因人们居家而受益的公司（如电商公司）和那些因人们外出而繁荣的公司（如航空公司）的股价。

Even today, the market looks favourably upon firms that serve stay-at-homers.

直到现在，市场也看好那些为居家者提供服务的公司。

Why has hermit behaviour endured?

为什么隐居行为持续存在？

The first possible reason is that some tremulous folk remain afraid of infection, whether by covid or something else.

第一个可能的原因是，一些胆小的人仍然害怕感染病毒，不管是新冠肺炎还是其他疾病。

In Britain, car use is in line with the pre-covid norm, whereas public-transport use is well down.

在英国，汽车使用率与疫情前的正常水平一致，而公共交通使用率则大幅下降。

People also seem less keen on up-close-and-personal services.

人们似乎也不太热衷于近距离的私人服务。

In America spending on hairdressing and personal grooming is 20% below its pre-covid trend, while spending on cosmetics, perfumes and nail preparations is up by a quarter.

在美国，美发和个人美容的支出比疫情前的趋势降低了20%，而化妆品、香水和指甲护理的支出则增加了四分之一。

The second reason relates to work patterns.

第二个原因与工作模式有关。

Across the rich world people now work about one day a week at home, according to Cevat Giray Aksoy of King’s College London and colleagues.

根据伦敦国王学院的杰瓦特·吉拉伊·阿克索伊及其同事们的研究，在富裕国家，人们现在每周大约有一天在家工作。

This cuts demand for services bought at the office, including lunches, and raises demand for do-it-yourself goods.

对于上班时会购买的服务（包括午餐），这方面的需求就减少了，而对DIY产品的需求就增加了。

Last year Italians spent 34% more on glassware, tableware and household utensils than in 2019.

去年，意大利人在玻璃器皿、餐具和家庭用具上的支出比2019年增加了34%。

The third relates to values.

第三是价值观。

Covid may have made people genuinely more hermit-like.

新冠病毒可能真的让人们变得更像隐士。

According to official data from America, last year people slept 11 minutes more a day than in 2019.

根据美国的官方数据，去年人们每天的睡眠时间比2019年多11分钟。

They also spent less on clubs that require membership and other social activities, and more on solitary pursuits, such as gardening and pets.

人们在需要会员资格的俱乐部和其他社交活动上的花费也更少，而在单人活动上花费更多，比如园艺和宠物。

Meanwhile, global online searches for “Patience”, a card game otherwise known as Solitaire, are running at about twice their pre-pandemic level.

与此同时，对Patience纸牌游戏（也叫Solitaire）的全球搜索量约为疫情前的两倍。

Covid’s biggest legacy, it seems, has been to pull people apart.

新冠留下的最大遗产似乎就是将人们彼此分开。

来源：经济学人