Finance & economics

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Fed bound

美联储的约束

Silicon Valley Bank’s demise signals a painful new phase in financial markets.

硅谷银行倒闭标志金融市场进入痛苦的新阶段。

To quell inflation, goes the adage, central bankers must tighten monetary policy until something breaks.

有句谚语说，为了抑制通胀，央行官员必须收紧货币政策，直到某些东西崩溃。

For much of the past year this cliché has been easy to dismiss.

在过去一年的大部分时间里，这种陈词滥调很容易被人忽视。

Starting in March 2022, America’s Federal Reserve has raised rates at the fastest clip since the 1980s.

从2022年3月开始，美联储以自上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息。

Even as markets plunged, the world’s financial system stayed wreckage-free.

即使市场暴跌，世界金融体系也没有遭到破坏。

When British pension funds wobbled in September, the Bank of England swiftly helped right them.

当英国养老基金在9月份摇摇欲坠时，英格兰银行迅速帮助其恢复正常。

The most notable collapse--that of ftx, a disgraced former crypto exchange--was well outside the mainstream and, regulators say, caused by fraud rather than the Fed.

最引人注意的崩溃，即名誉扫地的前加密货币交易平台FTX的崩溃，远在主流市场之外，监管机构表示，这是由欺诈而非美联储造成的。

Now something has broken.

现在，有些东西崩溃了。

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a mid-tier American lender that went bust on March 10th, sent shock waves through markets.

3月10日，美国中型贷款机构硅谷银行(SVB)破产，给市场带来巨大冲击。

Most noticeable were convulsions in the stocks of other banks, which investors worried may have similar vulnerabilities.

最引人注目的表现是其他银行的股票发生震荡，投资者担心这些银行可能存在类似的脆弱性。

Nasdaq’s index of bank stocks dropped by a quarter in the course of a week, erasing gains from the preceding 25 years.

纳斯达克的银行股指数在一周内下跌了四分之一，将过去25年的增长一下抹去。

Shares in American regional lenders were bludgeoned much harder.

美国地区性贷款机构的股票也遭受了更为沉重的打击。

Then the turmoil went global: shares in Credit Suisse, a European bank, cratered on March 15th.

然后，动荡蔓延至全球：欧洲银行瑞士信贷的股价在3月15日跌至谷底。

Financial markets have entered a new phase, in which the Fed’s tightening cycle starts to bite.

金融市场进入了一个新阶段，美联储的紧缩周期开始引起刺痛。

One feature of this phase is that markets are suddenly working with the Fed rather than against it.

这一阶段的一个特点是，市场突然开始与美联储合作，而不是与其作对。

For more than a year, the central bank’s officials have been repeating the same message:

一年多来，央行官员一直在重复同样的信息：

that inflation is proving more stubborn than expected, meaning interest rates will need to rise higher than previously predicted.

事实证明，通胀比预期更顽固，这意味着利率需要比之前预测的有更大幅度的提高。

This message was reinforced by data released on March 14th showing that underlying consumer prices had once again risen faster than expected.

3月14日发布的数据强化了这一信息，数据显示，潜在消费者价格再次以快于预期的速度上涨。

Policymakers want to tighten financial conditions--such as lending standards, interest costs or money-market liquidity—in order to reduce aggregate demand and cool price rises.

政策制定者希望收紧金融环境--如贷款标准、利息成本或货币市场流动性--以减少总需求并为价格上涨降温。

Since October, markets have been pulling in the other direction.

自去年10月以来，市场一直在向相反的方向发展。

A gauge of financial conditions compiled by Bloomberg, a data provider, has shown them steadily loosening.

数据提供者彭博社对金融环境的衡量数据显示，金融环境正在稳步放松。

Over the past week, all this loosening has been reversed.

在过去一周里，所有这些放松趋势都发生了逆转。

SVB’s collapse has shocked markets into doing the Fed’s job.

硅谷银行的倒闭震惊了市场，促使其开始履行美联储的职责。

That does not mean investors have given up fighting the Fed.

这并不意味着投资者已经放弃了与美联储的对抗。

They are still betting it will soon start cutting rates, even though officials have given no such indication.

投资者仍在赌美联储将很快开始降息，尽管官员们并没有做出这种表示。

The battleground has nevertheless shifted.

然而，战场已经发生了变化。

Earlier this year, expectations of rate cuts sprang from hopes inflation would fall faster than the Fed expected.

今年早些时候，对降息的预期源于人们希望通胀将以快于美联储预期的速度下降。

Now they reflect fear.

现在，降息的预期则反映了恐惧。

On March 13th the two-year Treasury yield fell by 0.61 percentage points, the biggest one-day drop in more than 40 years.

3月13日，两年期美国国债收益率下跌0.61个百分点，创下40多年来的最大单日跌幅。

Panicked trading on March 15th prompted worries of the market seizing up.

3月15日恐慌之下的交易引发了人们对市场失灵的担忧。

Given that some banks have failed, investors are betting that the Fed will cut rates not because the inflation monster is tamed, but in order to avoid breaking anything else.

鉴于一些银行已经倒闭，投资者打赌美联储将会降息，不是因为通胀怪兽被驯服，而是为了避免造成其他崩溃。

Taken in conjunction with the reaction in other markets, this suggests a degree of cognitive dissonance.

结合其他市场的反应，这表明存在一定程度的认知偏差。

Broader stockmarket indices fell, but not precipitously.

更广泛的股市指数下降，但并非陡然下跌。

The S&P 500 index of large American firms is level with its position at the start of the year.

美国大型企业的标准普尔500指数与年初持平。

The dollar, which tends to strengthen in crises as investors flock to safety, weakened a little.

美元在危机中往往会走强，因为投资者会蜂拥至避险资产，但美元反而略有走弱。

On the one hand, investors think the Fed should fear bank failures enough to start cutting rates.

一方面，投资者认为美联储应该担心银行倒闭，这种担忧足以让美联储开始降息。

On the other, they do not themselves fear the fallout of such a failure enough to reflect it in prices.

另一方面，他们自己对这种倒闭的后果的担忧，又不足以在价格中有所反应。

Lying behind this contradiction is supposed tension between the Fed’s inflation target and its duty to protect financial stability.

这种矛盾背后是一种紧张关系，即美联储的通胀目标与保护金融稳定的职责之间的紧张关系。

The failure of SVB, which was rooted in losses from fixed-rate bonds (the value of which fell as rates rose), looks like evidence for this.

硅谷银行破产，其根源在于固定利率债券产生的损失(其价值随着利率上升而下降)，这看起来就是这种紧张关系的证据。

Since even the fight against inflation pales in importance next to the stability of the banking system, goes the argument, the Fed cannot afford to raise rates any higher.

他们认为，由于与银行体系的稳定相比，即使是对抗通胀的重要性也退居其次，因此美联储承担不起继续加息的代价。

This lowers the risk of recession, gives a boost to stocks and reduces the need for haven assets like the dollar.

这降低了经济衰退的风险，提振了股市，并减少了对美元等避险资产的需求。

Do not be so sure.

先别这么肯定。

Following SVB’s collapse, the Fed has promised to backstop other banks.

硅谷银行倒闭后，美联储已承诺增援其他银行。

Its support--lending against securities worth as little as two-thirds of the loan value--should prevent any remotely solvent institution from going under wherever interest rates end up.

美联储的支持--以价值仅为贷款价值三分之二的证券为抵押，给银行提供贷款--应该会防止任何偿付能力极低的机构倒闭，无论利率的最终水平如何。

Alongside this generosity lies an uncomfortable truth.

与这种慷慨并存的是一个令人不安的事实。

To squeeze inflation out of the economy, the Fed needs to make lenders nervous, loans expensive and businesses risk-averse.

为了将通胀挤出经济，美联储需要让借贷机构感到紧张、让贷款变得昂贵、让企业规避风险。

Allowing reckless banks such as SVB to fail is not a tragic accident.

允许硅谷银行这样鲁莽的银行倒闭并不是一起悲惨事故。

It is part of the Fed’s job.

这是美联储的部分职责所在。

来源：经济学人