Economists have always been fond of Uber. Its willingness to battle incumbents, use of technology to match buyers and sellers,
经济学家一直都钟爱优步。优步乐意与在位者竞争、利用科技将买家和卖家进行匹配，
and embrace of "surge" pricing to balance supply and demand make the ride-hailing giant a dismal scientist's dream.
并乐于采用“峰时价格”平衡供求关系，这使得这家约车巨头成为了科学家的梦想。
Steven Levitt, the author of the bestselling "Freakonomics", called it "the embodiment of what the economists would like the economy to look like".
畅销书《魔鬼经济学》的作者史蒂文·莱维特称其为“经济学家理想经济的化身”。
But if economists subjected Uber and its competitors to a cost-benefit analysis, they might not be so impressed.
但如果经济学家们对优步和其竞争对手进行一次成本效益分析，可能就不会对它们如此印象深刻了。
This might surprise customers. A study in 2016 by researchers from Oxford University,
这可能会让消费者们感到意外。2016年来自牛津大学、
the University of Chicago and Uber itself found sizeable benefits from ride-hailing services for consumers.
芝加哥大学和优步的研究人员做了一项研究，研究发现消费者从约车服务中获利丰厚。
优步经济学:艰难的交易(1).jpg
Using data from 48m Uber trips taken in four American cities in 2015,
他们根据2015年四个美国城市的4800万次优步出行记录
they estimated the difference between how much customers were willing to pay and their actual fare.
估算出了乘客愿意支付的车费和他们实际车费之间的差别。
Each $1 spent on Uberx rides generated a "consumer surplus" of $1.60. Across America, that surplus was estimated to be $6.8bn a year.
每花费1美元乘坐优步，就会产生1.6美元的“消费者盈余”。据估计，全美每年所产生的这类盈余为68亿美元。
Drivers also benefit. Few sign up for lack of anything else, as is true of some gig work:
司机也是受益者。不向一些零工，极少有人因没事可做而签约优步：
in America roughly eight in ten have left another job to get behind the wheel.
在美国约有80%的人辞职去开车。
The typical American Uber driver makes $16 per hour ($10 after expenses), higher than the federal minimum wage.
美国优步司机一般每小时可挣16美元（扣除成本后为10美元），比联邦最低工资都高。
In London earnings after expenses come to 11 pounds ($14) per hour
在伦敦，扣除成本后，司机每小时可挣11英镑（14美元）
and a recent survey found Uber drivers reporting higher levels of life satisfaction on average than other workers.
并且最近的一项调查发现优步司机比其他劳动者的平均生活满意度都高。
But against these benefits, there are costs to weigh.
但在这些利益背后，还有代价需要权衡。
Far from reducing congestion by encouraging people to give up their cars, as many had hoped, ride-hailing seems to increase it.
优步没有向很多人希望的那样，通过鼓励人们不要自己开车来缓解交通，约车服务似乎使交通拥堵变得更加严重。
Bruce Schaller, a transport consultant, estimates that over half of all Uber and Lyft trips in big American cities
交通顾问布鲁斯·夏勒估计在美国大城市中，超过半数的优步和来福车出行
would otherwise have been made on foot or by bike, bus, subway or train.
都本可以通过步行、自行车、公交车、地铁或火车进行。
He reckons that ride-hailing services add 2.8 vehicle miles of driving in those cities for every mile they subtract.
他认为，在这些城市中，它们的行程每缩减一公里，约车就要多跑2.8公里。
A new working paper by John Barrios of the University of Chicago and Yael Hochberg and Hanyi Yi of Rice University
芝加哥大学的John Barrios以及莱斯大学的Yael Hochberg和Hanyi Yi的一篇新工作论文
spells out one deadly consequence of this increase in traffic. Using data from the federal transport department,
明确说明了交通增长所导致的致命后果。根据联邦交通部的数据
they find that the introduction of ride-sharing to a city is associated with an increase in vehicle-miles travelled, petrol consumption and car registrations—
他们发现向一座城市引入拼车和汽车行驶里程、汽油消耗量以及车辆注册的增加有关联—
and a 3.5% jump in fatal car accidents. At a national level, this translates into 987 extra deaths a year.
并且致命交通事故增加了3.5%。从全国范围来看，这个比例相当于每年车祸死亡增加987例。
What could be done to tip the balance back to benefits overall? "Congestion pricing is the most direct solution," says Jonathan Hall of the University of Toronto.
怎样才能扭转平衡让整体受益呢？“高峰期行车收费是最直接的解决方案，”多伦多大学的Jonathan Hall说道。
Several cities, including London, Stockholm and Singapore, have moved in this direction, charging drivers for entering busy areas at peak hours.
包括伦敦、斯德哥尔摩和新加坡在内的几个城市已经开始朝这个方向行动，向那些在高峰期驶入繁忙地区的司机收费。
If ride-hailing firms tweaked their pricing to encourage carpooling, that would help, too.
如果约车公司调整价格鼓励拼车，也是有帮助的。
One of the worst things a city can do, says Mr Barrios, is to cap the number of ride-hailing cars on their streets, as New York did in August.
一个城市可以做的最糟糕的事情之一，Barrios表示，就是限制路上约车的数量，就像8月份纽约所做的那样。
That marked a step back towards the days when barriers to entering the taxi market were high and competition was low.
这是退步回到了那些出租车市场进入要求高，竞争力低的日子。
A dismal outcome, as most right-thinking economists would agree.
多数头脑正常的经济学家都会认为这是一个惨淡的结果。
来源：经济学人
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