导读:为什么日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)要提前举行大选?哪个政党更具优势？

Why did prime minister Shinzo Abe call an early election?

为什么日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)要提前举行大选?

It is all about timing. Abe spied an opportunity to take advantage of a weak and divided opposition. In addition, his approval ratings have recovered since the summer.

这是关于时间的问题。安倍抓住了反对派正处于弱势和分裂的机会。此外，自今年夏天以来，他的支持率也有所回升。

How big a factor is the North Korean nuclear crisis?

朝鲜核危机的影响有多大?

Abe has put the perceived threat from North Korean missiles at the heart of his campaign, not least because polls show most voters support his hard line against Pyongyang.

安倍将朝鲜导弹的威胁放在了他竞选的核心位置，尤其是因为民调显示大多数选民支持他对平壤的强硬路线。

Along with the low birthrate and elderly population, North Korea’s missile programme represents a “national crisis” for Japan, Abe has said.

安倍说，伴随着低出生率和人口老龄化的出现，朝鲜的导弹计划代表了日本的“国家危机”。

The regime has sent two ballistic missiles over the northern island of Hokkaido in recent weeks, triggering alerts and calls for Japan to develop the ability to strike North Korean military site.

朝鲜政府最近几周向北海道岛屿北部发射了两枚弹道导弹，引发了警报，因此也警示日本发展力量打击朝鲜军事基地。

Abe is expected to win approval for his hard line against North Korea’s missile and nuclear programmes, but he could struggle to convince voters of his plans to go through with a rise in the consumption (sales) tax in late 2019.

预计安倍将因对朝鲜导弹和核项目的强硬立场而获得支持，但他可能难以说服选民信服他的在2019年晚些时候提高消费税(销售税)的计划。

There is also an element of personal ambition: a comfortable win for Abe’s coalition would improve his chances of staying on as Liberal Democratic party (LDP) president next September, enabling him to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister.

还存在着一个关于个人抱负的因素:安倍政党较为稳当的胜利将促使他明年9月留任自民党总裁位置，从而使他成为日本在任时间最长的首相。

Who is Yuriko Koike?

小池百合子是谁?

Koike shook up Japanese politics in the summer of 2016 when she became the first female governor of Tokyo. Her decision to return to national politics with the launch of Kibo no To (Party of Hope) on the day Abe dissolved parliament .

小池百合子在2016年夏天成为首位女都知事，撼动了日本政坛。在安倍解散众议会的当天，她决定组建希望之党回归国家政治。

The absence of any real ideological differences between Koike and Abe, particularly on security, may tempt LDP voters to stick with the party they know, rather than the Tokyo governor’s newly formed band of “conservative reformers”.

小池和安倍之间没有任何真正的意识形态差异，尤其是在安全问题上，这可能会使自民党选民坚持他们所知道的政党，而不是东京都知事新组建的“改革保守政党”。

Which party is expected to win?

哪个政党有望获胜?

One poll this week even suggested that the LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, could come close to retaining their two-thirds “supermajority” in the lower house.

本周的一项调查甚至显示，自民党及其执政联盟伙伴公明党(Komeito)可能会在下议院保持三分之二的“绝对多数”。

With less than a week to go, it is looking as if Koike will have to settle for a distant second.

看起来在一周的时间内，小池将不得不屈居第二。

（来源：爱语吧）