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Airlines and the climate
航空公司与气候
Setting a new CORSIA
设立新的《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》
A carbon-intensive industry defangs an already mostly toothless offset scheme
碳密集型产业摧毁了基本上已经失效的碳抵消计划
“The worst year in the history of aviation” is how the International Air Transport Association (IATA) describes 2020. The global airline-industry body expects carriers’ revenues to fall by half and debt to swell by $120bn to $550bn. To cut costs airlines have grounded planes and put staff on unpaid leave.
国际航空运输协会（IATA）将2020年描述为“航空史上最糟糕的一年”。这家全球航空业机构预计，航空公司的收入将会减半，债务将增加1200亿美元，达到5500亿美元。为了削减成本，航空公司使飞机停飞，并让员工无薪休假。
Another slashed expense is that of climate action. Aviation emits 3% of manmade carbon dioxide. That share could rise to 5-9% by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency, a forecaster. To curb these emissions, in 2013 the European Union tried to add international aviation to its emissions-trading programme, including flights connecting EU airports to those outside the bloc. The industry cried foul. In a compromise the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), an agency of the UN, devised the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. CORSIA, as it is known for short, is due to start next year. It compels airlines to buy offsets for any additional CO2 produced by international flights above a baseline.
另一项削减开支的措施与气候行动相关。航空业二氧化碳排放量占人类制造的二氧化碳排放量的3%。据国际能源署预测，到2050年，这一比例可能增至5-9%。为了减排，2013年，欧盟试图将国际航空业纳入其碳排放交易计划，包括来往于欧盟机场内外的航班。航空业为此叫苦不迭。联合国下属的国际民用航空组织（ICAO）作出妥协，设计了《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》。《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》，简称CORSIA，将于明年生效。这项计划迫使航空公司对于超过基准的国际航班产生的任何额外的二氧化碳进行购买抵消。
That baseline has become hotly contested. It was originally set at the industry’s average emissions for 2019 and 2020. Now emissions are forecast to fall by 37% this year, which would mean a lower baseline— and so, in time, higher offsetting costs. So IATA proposed using just emissions from just 2019 instead. On June 30th icao’s 36- member council agreed, at least for COASIA’s first three years.
碳排放基准线饱受争议。最初将2019年和2020年的航空业平均排放量设定为基准。目前预计今年的碳排放量将减少37%，这意味着更低的基准值以及更高的碳抵消开支。因此，国际航协建议只使用2019年的排放量作为基准。6月30日，由36个成员国组成的国际民航组织理事会同意，至少在《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》实施的前三年应用这一基准。
Environmental groups are up in arms. The scheme already lacked bite, since it is voluntary until 2027 and does not include domestic flights, about a third of the industry’s emissions. Countries representing three-quarters of aviation’s carbon footprint have signed up but flights between those which have opted in and those which have not are excluded. Dan Rutherford of the International Council on Clean Transportation, an NGO, calculates that on prepandemic trends the original plan would have covered only 9% of aviation emissions from 2021 to 2035 (when the scheme is scheduled to end).
然而，环保组织对此表示强烈不满。这项计划本身缺乏说服力，因为在2027年之前，这项计划是自愿性质的，而且计划内不包括国内航班，而国内航班的碳排放量大约占航空业的三分之一。产生航空业碳足迹四分之三的国家已经签署了协议，但往返选择加入的国家和尚未加入的国家之间的航班则被排除在外。非政府组织国际洁净运输理事会的丹·卢瑟福计算出，按照疫情前的趋势，在2021年至2035年（计划结束）期间，原计划只覆盖航空排放量的9%。
In fact, the two-year average was expressly designed to account for low-emission years —a lesson learned from an early attempt to set the baseline in 2010, which was thwarted by the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, an Icelandic volcano which grounded flights in Europe.
事实上，取两年平均值是特意为了考虑到低排放年份—这是从2010年早期基准值设定的尝试中吸取的教训，当时冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发，导致欧洲航班停飞。
Another complaint is that many of the offsets airlines can buy are ineffective. A report in November last year by the New- Climate Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute, two think-tanks, found that 80% of CORSIA’s potential offsets are unlikely to have any additional benefit to the climate. Since then ICAO has, to its credit, limited the availability of junk offsets in the scheme, though green campaigners say it has not gone far enough.
另一个抱怨是，航空公司可购买的许多碳抵消都没有产生效果。智库新气候机构和斯德哥尔摩环境研究所在去年11月发布了一份报告，报告显示80%的CORSIA计划中售卖的碳抵消不大可能会对气候有任何益处。值得称赞的是，从那时起，ICAO限制了该计划中无用碳抵消的可购买性，不过环保人士表示，这还不够。
Offsets’ bargain prices also suggest something is amiss. In 2018 the average price in the “voluntary market” (outside of mandated schemes) was $3 per tonne of CO2, about a sixth of the carbon price in the EU emissions-trading scheme. Last year EasyJet, a British low-cost carrier, announced plans to offset all its annual emissions. This will cost it a footling $32m. New offest projects created in anticipation of CORSIA boosted supply, which is expected to be four times higher than demand.
抵消公司的廉价价格也表明出了问题。2018年，“自愿市场”（强制性计划之外）的平均价格为每吨二氧化碳3美元，约为欧盟排放交易计划中碳价格的六分之一。去年，英国一家低成本航空公司EasyJet宣布了抵消其全年排放量的计划。这将使该公司损失无足轻重的3200万美元。预计CORSIA计划中新设计的碳抵消计划将增加供应，预计供应量将是需求量的4倍。
Industry executives claim that the original baseline would have imposed crippling costs. That seems overblown. Sparse coverage and the cheap offsets mean the cost to the industry is low. Assuming an offset price of $5 per tonne of CO2, Mr Rutherford estimates the change in the baseline will save airlines $350m a year. That is less than 1% of the forecast operating cashflow in 2021 for a panel of 37 listed airlines.
航空业高管声称，最初的基准会增加巨大的成本。这似乎言过其实了。稀疏的覆盖范围和廉价的抵消价格意味着航空业的成本很低。假设抵消价格为每吨二氧化碳5美元，卢瑟福估计，基准线的改变将每年为航空公司节省3.5亿美元。这还不到37家上市航空公司预测的2021年运营现金流的1%。
Forgoing those savings would have been a small price to pay for burnishing airlines’ reputations as they seek billions in government bail-outs. Accusations of greenwashing will make calls to attach potentially much costlier green strings to the rescue packages grow louder.
在航空公司向政府寻求数十亿美元纾困之际，放弃这些节省下来的开支，以微薄的代价来赚取好名声，也不错。“绿色环保”的指责将使要求在援助方案中附加昂贵的环保条件的呼声越来越高。
来源：经济学人
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