Finance & economics

财经

The global economy

全球经济

A good kind of bubble

良好的圈

As some countries contain the virus more successfully than others, could travel zones offer a route to economic recovery?

一些国家比其他国家更成功地遏制了病毒，这能否让旅游业为经济复苏开辟一条道路?

It may be a painful fact to contemplate during these locked-down days, but last year the world was more mobile than ever, with people taking 4.6bn flights.

在封锁期间，这个事实可能会让人感到痛苦，但去年，全世界的流动人口比任何时候都多，人们乘坐了46亿次航班。

In April this year, though, planes carried just 47m passengers; that level of mobility, annualised, would set the clocks back to 1978.

然而，今年4月，飞机载客量只有4700万人次；按年度计算，这样的流动性水平会让时光退回1978年。

The virtual halt to travel has exacerbated the global economy’s woes, complicating trade ties, upending business and devastating the tourism industry.

实际上停摆的旅游业加剧了全球经济的困境，也让贸易关系更加复杂，它颠覆了商业，摧毁了旅游业。

Little wonder that governments want to restore links.

难怪各国政府想要恢复联系。

An idea gaining favour is the creation of travel “bubbles”, binding together countries that have fared well against the coronavirus.

一个越来越受欢迎的想法是创造旅游“圈”，将在对抗新冠病毒方面表现良好的国家联结在一起。

A closer look yields some grounds for optimism.

仔细思考一下，我们是有理由感到乐观的。

The Economist has identified potential bubbles that account for around 35% of global GDP, 39% of all trade in goods and services and 42% of the world’s spending on tourism.

《经济学人》指出，潜在的旅游圈占全球GDP的35%，占商品和服务贸易的39%，以及世界旅游消费的42%。

But the challenge of connecting them also underscores how hard restarting the global economy will be.

但将它们联系起来是一项挑战，这突显了重启全球经济的难度。

Simply returning borders to pre-virus days is, for now, inconceivable.

就目前而言，连让边境恢复为病毒爆发前的样子都难以实现。

Many health experts, first critical of travel restrictions, have come to view strict controls as useful, especially for places that have contained local infections.

许多起初对旅行限制持批评态度的卫生专家开始认为，严格的控制措施是有用的，尤其是在那些控制了本地疫情的地方。

“Every inbound case is a potential seed that can grow into an outbreak,” says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University.

香港大学流行病学家本·考林表示:“每一个传入的病例都是一粒可能导致疫情爆发的潜在种子。”

The first bubble is due to come to life on May 15th between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, among Europe’s best performers in taming the virus.

第一个圈将于5月15日在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛之间出现，这些国家是欧洲在遏制病毒方面表现最好的国家之一。

Their citizens will be free to travel inside the zone without quarantine.

这些国家的公民将可以在区域内自由旅行而无需隔离。

The next might be a trans-Tasman bubble, tying New Zealand to Australia’s state of Tasmania, both of which have kept new cases down.

下一个可能是跨塔斯曼圈，将新西兰和澳大利亚的塔斯马尼亚州联系在一起，这两个州都降低了新病例的数量。

China and South Korea have launched a “fast track” entry channel for business people.

中韩两国开通了商务人士“快车道”准入渠道。

“My expectation is that there will be a large number of small travel bubbles,” Mr Cowling says.

考林表示:“我预计，旅游业将出现大量的小型旅游圈。”

But in the same way that regional trade deals are more efficient than bilateral pacts, the economic benefits from making the bubbles bigger would be greater.

但是，就像区域贸易协定比双边协定更有效一样，让旅游圈扩大所带来的经济利益也会更大。

Based on an analysis of infection data, The Economist sees two large zones that could emerge as bubbles, subsuming the smaller ones that are now being formed.

根据对感染数据的分析，《经济学人》认为有两个大区域可能会形成旅游圈，其中包括正在形成的较小区域。

The first is in the Asia-Pacific region, where countries from Japan to New Zealand have recorded fewer than ten new infections per 1m residents over the past week.

第一个是在亚太地区，从日本到新西兰，过去一周每100万居民新增感染人数不到10人。

The second is in Europe: using a laxer threshold—fewer than 100 new cases on the same basis—the bubble could reach from the Baltic to the Adriatic, and take in Germany.

第二个是在欧洲:采取较宽松的门槛——每100万居民新增病例少于100个——旅游圈可以从波罗的海到亚得里亚海，再延伸到德国。

Our AsiaPacific bubble would, thanks to China and Japan, account for 27% of global GDP.

亚太地区的中国和日本会让旅游圈占据全球GDP的27%。

Our European one would make up 8%. One measure of the potential value of the bubbles is their degree of trade integration, showing whether the economies are complementary.

欧洲占8%。衡量旅游圈潜在价值的一个标准是它们的贸易一体化程度，它可以反映出两国经济是否具有互补性。

For the countries in our Asia-Pacific bubble, an average of 51% of their overall trade is with each other.

对处于亚太旅游圈中的国家来说，彼此之间的贸易平均占其总贸易的51%。

In our Baltic-to-Adriatic bubble, it is 41%.

在波罗的海到亚得里亚海的旅游圈中，这个比例是41%。

Small countries would gain the most by reconnecting with larger neighbours.

通过与较大的邻国重新建立联系，小国将获得最大的利益。

Free movement would be especially helpful for countries such as Thailand and Greece that rely on tourism.

自由流动对泰国和希腊等依赖旅游业的国家尤其有帮助。

来源：经济学人