Democrats Decide That Joe Biden, as Risky as He Ever Was, Is the Safest Bet
拜登为何能在“超级星期二”起死回生？

The scene, on its face, might not have been surprising a year ago: Joe Biden — appraised among Democrats as a decent man and affable sidekick to the party’s most popular figure — racking up primary victories and having fun talking about it.

从表面上看，这个场面如果出现在一年前或许并不令人惊讶：乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在初选中连连获胜，津津乐道地谈论胜利。拜登在民主党人中的评价是，他是个正派人，是该党最得选民欢心者的平易近人的助手。

“They don’t call it Super Tuesday for nothing!” he told supporters in Los Angeles, shouting through a list of states he had won amid a medley of fist-pumps and we-did-its.

“人们把这天称为超级星期二不是没有原因的！”他在洛杉矶对支持者们说，还在挥舞着拳头庆祝胜利的人群面前大声念出了他获得初选胜利的州名单。

前副总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登在上个月的四场初选中输掉了三场，但他的命运周二发生了改变。

But a week ago, the result would have been something close to unthinkable.

但在一周前，这样的结果几乎不可想像。

Lifted by a hasty unity among center-left Democrats disinclined toward political revolution, Biden has propelled himself in the span of three days from electoral failure to would-be juggernaut. He has demonstrated durable strength with African Americans and emerged as the if-everyone-says-so vessel for tactical voters who think little of Sen. Bernie Sanders and fear that his nomination would mean four more years of President Donald Trump.

在无意于政治革命的中左翼民主党人仓促团结起来的推动下，拜登在短短三天里咸鱼大翻身，把自己从选举失败者变成了未来的主宰。他展示出在非洲裔美国人中拥有的持久支持，并正在以“如果所有人都这么认为”的载体出现在战术选民面前，这些选民不喜欢参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)，担心他获得提名将意味着唐纳德·特朗普会再执政四年。

Biden’s performance included decisive early wins across the South, victory in delegate-rich Texas and triumphs in some places where he did not even campaign as Super Tuesday approached, like Minnesota and Massachusetts, home to Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The dominant showing made clear that the primary has effectively narrowed to a two-man race with Sanders, as Michael Bloomberg’s first brush with national voters yielded meager returns on a colossal financial investment.

拜登获胜的州包括：他以决定性票数早早赢下的南方各州，代表票数众多的得克萨斯州，以及在超级星期二临近时他甚至没有去进行竞选活动的一些州，比如明尼苏达州和马萨诸塞州，后者是参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)居住的州。拜登的优势表现让人们清楚地看到，民主党的初选实际上已缩小为他与桑德斯两人的竞争。迈克尔·布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)首次面对全国选民的表现不佳，他的巨额财力投入只得到了微薄的回报。

For all Biden’s stumbles — in Iowa, in New Hampshire, at debates, at his own events — perhaps all voters needed was to hear him give a victory speech.

尽管拜登在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州、在辩论中，以及在他本人的竞选活动中出了不少岔子，但也许选民需要的只是听他发表一次胜选演说。

That happened Saturday, in South Carolina, where Biden seemed to temporarily erase every latent concern that had accumulated for nearly a year about his bid.

这在上周六的南卡罗来纳州发生了。拜登似乎在那里暂时抹去了人们近一年里积累起来的对他竞选的潜在担忧。

Yet any suggestion that Biden is now a risk-free option would appear to contradict the available evidence.

然而，任何认为拜登现在是一个无风险选择的暗示，似乎都与目前的证据相矛盾。

He is no safer with a microphone, no likelier to complete a thought without exaggeration or bewildering detour.

他在麦克风前不比以前安全，他不夸张或不绕令人困惑的弯子就把想法说出来的可能性也不比以前大。

He has not, as a 77-year-old man proudly set in his ways, acquired new powers of persuasion or management in the 72 hours since the first primary state victory of his three presidential campaigns.

他在三个州的总统竞选初选中首次获胜，但在随后的72小时里并没有获得新的说服或管理能力，他毕竟已是77岁高龄，将积习难改引以为豪。

In fact, Biden has blundered this chance before — the establishment front-runner; the last, best hope for moderates — fumbling his initial 2020 advantages in a hail of disappointing fundraising, feeble campaign organization and staggering underperformance.

事实上，拜登曾错失这个机会。当权派曾认为他是最可能获胜的人；对温和派来说，他是最后的也是最好的希望。但他却在一连串令人失望的筹款、薄弱的竞选筹备工作，以及令人震惊的不佳表现中，笨手笨脚地失去了自己在2020年大选中拥有的最初优势。

When it mattered most, though, the judgment came swiftly from Sanders-averse Democrats.

不过，在最紧要的时刻，不喜欢桑德斯的民主党人迅速做出了判断。

All right, we’ll take him.

好吧，我们就要他了。

Voters wary of Sanders are probably right that supporting Biden is the tidiest way to keep the democratic socialist from the top of the ticket. They may yet be right that Biden would pose the strongest challenge to Trump. The former vice president is widely admired in the party for moving gracefully through tragedy and serving alongside Barack Obama.

担心桑德斯的选民认为，支持拜登是不让一位民主社会主义者成为选票上的头号民主党人的最井然有序的方法，在这点上他们可能是对的。他们认为拜登会对特朗普构成最强有力的挑战，在这点上他们可能也是对的。这位前副总统在不幸遭遇面前不失风度，还曾是巴拉克·奥巴马的搭档，因此在民主党内享有广泛的赞誉。

Certainly Trump would appear to have his preferences: Last year, he was impeached after trying to enlist a foreign power’s help to damage Biden. In recent weeks, the president has tweeted mischievous praise of Sanders, seeming eager to elevate him as a prospective opponent.

当然，特朗普似乎也有自己想要的对手。去年他因为曾经试图利用外国势力的帮助来损害拜登，而遭到了弹劾。最近几周里，总统多次在Twitter上对桑德斯进行恶搞式的赞扬，似乎急于把桑德斯提升到潜在对手的地位。

But what if Trump is wrong? What if every elected official hustling to endorse Biden, after long resisting, is wrong, too? Recent election history, especially Trump’s, has been unkind to conventional wisdom.

不过，要是特朗普错了会怎么样呢？民主党的民选官员们在长时间拒绝表态后，出来催促人们支持拜登，要是他们也都错了会怎么样呢？最近的选举史，尤其是特朗普的选举史，对大多数人的看法并不客气。

Only a couple of weeks ago, some Biden allies were talking quietly about how he could, at least, end his campaign with dignity: Hang on narrowly in South Carolina, hopefully, and bow out, statesmanlike, if Super Tuesday went sideways as many expected.

就在几周前，拜登的一些盟友还在私下谈论他至少能怎样体面地结束自己的竞选：争取在南卡罗来纳州以微弱优势获胜，如果超级星期二的结果如许多人预期的那样对拜登不利的话，以政治家的姿态退出竞选。

That Biden’s fortunes have changed says more about the context of this primary than the content of his campaign. Current and former competitors, including Warren, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, all strained to connect with black and Latino voters. Bloomberg flailed on the debate stage as he stepped out from behind the reputational curtain of his ubiquitous advertisements. And many in the party have remained uncomfortable with the kind of unswerving progressivism that Sanders demands.

拜登的命运已经发生了变化，这更多地反映了今年初选的大背景，而不是他竞选的内容。他现在和以前的竞争对手，包括沃伦、曾任市长的彼特·布塔杰吉(Pete Buttigieg)，以及参议员艾米·克罗布查(Amy Klobuchar)，都在争取非洲裔和拉美裔选民的支持上力不从心。布隆伯格从自己无处不在的广告编织的名声帷幔里走出来站到辩论台上时，让人大跌眼镜。民主党内有许多人对桑德斯要求的那种坚定不移的进步主义一直感到不安。

The depth of this last concern with Sanders is uncertain. Entering Tuesday, his predictions of runaway progressive turnout to his cause, a central premise of his case for his own electability, had not necessarily come to pass.

最后这个关于桑德斯的担忧究竟有多深还不确定。他在进入周二时曾预测，进步人士将踊跃加入到他的事业中来，这是他认为自己能在大选中获胜的一个核心假定，但这个预测并不一定会成为现实。

It is also quite possible, after all the Tuesday states are accounted for, that the delegate picture will look very competitive, particularly as full tallies from California roll in. Sanders remains popular across much of the party, even among many who did not consider him their first choice.

也有相当多的可能的是，所有周二举行了初选的州把选票都统计出来后，尤其是加利福尼亚州的全部统计结果出炉后，拜登和桑德斯各自获得的代表票数看来仍不分上下。桑德斯在民主党内仍有很多支持者，甚至在许多没有把他当作第一选择的人当中也是如此。

If nothing else, a Biden-Sanders matchup is the logical venue for the party’s foremost ideological debate about the proper scope and ambition of government — about whether Trump is a symptom of long-standing national ills or an “anomaly,” as Biden has suggested, whose removal should be the party’s chief animating priority.

别的不说，拜登与桑德斯的竞赛将是民主党内最重要的意识形态辩论的合理平台，这场辩论涉及政府的适用范围和雄心，也涉及特朗普究竟是美国长期弊病的症状，还是像拜登暗示的那样只是一个“异常”，将其去除应该是该党首要的激发活力的任务。

The two contenders were products of the same era, shaped by very different forces within it. Sanders became a mission-driven lefty, enthralled by socialist and communist governments abroad and the fight for working people at home. Biden preferred a within-the-system approach, winning a Senate election at 29 and acknowledging some distance from the activist instincts of many contemporaries.

这两名竞争者是同一时代的产物，但他们受到的时代影响有很大的不同。桑德斯成了一名使命驱动的左翼分子，受国外的社会主义和共产主义政府吸引，致力于为国内劳动人民的利益作斗争。拜登更喜欢从体制内解决问题，他29岁时就赢得了参议院选举，并承认自己与许多同时代人的激进主义本能地保持一定距离。

“I wore sport coats,” Biden told reporters once, explaining his limited involvement in antiwar zeal. “I was not part of that.”

“我穿便服外套，”拜登在解释自己在反对越战上只表现出有限的热情时，曾这样对记者说。“我不是运动的一部分。”

That comment came as Biden sought the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination. Sanders ran for Congress that year. They both fell short. They both tried again.

拜登说这句话是在他寻求1988年民主党总统候选人提名的时候。那年，桑德斯竞选国会议员。他们都未成功。后来，两人都再次参选。

For more than two decades, they served in the same Washington, amassing voting records that have often dogged them since. Sanders has said he regrets his voting history on some gun legislation; Biden has faced consistent criticism, including from Sanders, for his vote authorizing the use of military force in Iraq, among other decisions.

20多年来，他们一直同在华盛顿工作，留下了大量的立法投票记录，这些记录有时会困扰他们。桑德斯说过他对自己在枪支立法上的投票记录感到遗憾；拜登在投票授权对伊拉克使用武力以及其他表决上一直面临批评，包括来自桑德斯的批评。

This paper trail convinced some 2020 strategists that both candidates would be vulnerable. Their own campaigns did not necessarily see it that way.

他们的立法表决记录让一些2020年大选的策略师认为，两位候选人都容易受到攻击。他们自己的竞选团队不一定这么看。

“I always thought that this race would be between the clash of two titans, of Bernie and Biden,” said Ro Khanna, a California congressman and Sanders campaign co-chair. “It’s odd that it wasn’t the conventional wisdom.”

“我一直认为，这场竞选将是两名高手之争，在伯尼和拜登之间展开，”加州国会议员、桑德斯竞选活动联合主席罗·康纳(Ro Khanna)说。“奇怪的是，这不是大多数人的看法。”

Over the past year, alternative outcomes were easy to imagine. There were candidates of virtually every profile, including a half-dozen alone from Super Tuesday states, and a procession of fresh faces like Sen. Kamala Harris and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke who seemed primed to capitalize on voters’ curiosity.

在过去的一年里，不难想像会有其他的结果。曾有过简历各异的候选人，包括来自在超级星期二举行初选的那些州的六名候选人，以及像参议员卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)和前众议员贝托·欧洛克(Beto O’Rourke)等一批新面孔，他们似乎准备从选民的好奇心上获得优势。

Sanders was often dismissed as a factional candidate and 2016 retread even before he had a heart attack last fall.

桑德斯常被认为是一名派系候选人，是2016年的旧戏重演，甚至在他去年秋天心脏病发作之前就是这样。

Biden was depicted as a lackluster contender out of step with the times.

拜登则被描绘成一个跟不上时代步伐的枯燥无味的竞选者。

“You cannot go back to the end of the Obama administration and think that that’s good enough,” O’Rourke said last June, calling Biden a return to the past.

“你不可能回到奥巴马政府的后期，认为那已经是足够好的时候，”欧洛克去年6月这样说，他批评拜登要回到过去。

“I just think Biden is declining,” Tim Ryan, an Ohio congressman who was then running for president, said last September. “I don’t think he has the energy. You see it almost daily.”

“我只是觉得拜登已经大不如前了，”俄亥俄州众议员蒂姆·瑞安(Tim Ryan)去年9月说，他当时也在竞选党内总统提名。“我不觉得他有这种精力。你几乎每天都能看到这点。”

Both men have now endorsed Biden’s campaign. Other fallen rivals, like Buttigieg and Klobuchar, have done the same.

这两人现在都支持拜登参选。其他已经退出竞争的对手，如布塔杰吉和克罗布查，也做了同样的决定。

Sanders has a theory about all that. “There is a massive effort trying to stop Bernie Sanders. That’s not a secret to anybody in this room,” he told reporters Monday. “So why would I be surprised that establishment politicians are coming together?”

桑德斯对此有自己的理论。“有一股巨大的力量试图阻止伯尼·桑德斯。这对在座的各位都不是秘密，”他周一对记者说。“所以，我为什么会对当权派政客走到一起感到惊讶呢？”

Of course, politics is about options, and Democrats suddenly have very few, even as some remaining candidates suggest they are being overlooked.

当然，政治就是做出选择，民主党人的选择突然变得很少了，尽管一些仍未退出的候选人暗示他们被忽视了。

Both Warren and Bloomberg have effectively admitted that their only path to the nomination is a contested convention this summer. This has not stopped either from pressing on so far.

沃伦和布隆伯格实际上都已承认，他们获得提名的唯一途径是民主党在今年夏天的代表大会上就提名问题发生争议。但到目前为止，这并没有让他们停止竞选。（本文中文版发表时，布隆伯格已宣布退选——编注。）

In California on Monday, Warren said that “no matter how many Washington insiders tell you” to support Biden, “nominating their fellow Washington insider will not meet this moment.”

沃伦周一在加州说，“不管有多少华盛顿圈内人叫你们”支持拜登，“提名他们在华盛顿圈内的同伙不是顺应这个时刻的选择。”

Bloomberg, growing weary Tuesday of questions about whether his run was aiding Sanders, framed the issue in reverse: “Why don’t they coalesce around me?” he asked of moderates during a stop in Florida.

常有人问布隆伯格他的参选是否有助于桑德斯，周二，他对有人再次这样问感到厌倦，他从另一个角度反问道：“为什么他们不团结在我的周围呢？”他指的是温和派，他当时正在佛罗里达州短暂停留。

By evening’s end, he seemed to have his answer. They had settled on someone else.