Robert Farley, a Senior Lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, has listed Taiwan as the second most likely place where World War III could erupt next year with North Korea the first most likely place.

肯塔基大学帕特森外交与国际商业学院的高级讲师罗伯特·法利把台湾列为了明年第二最有可能爆发第三次世界大战的地方，朝鲜是最有可能的地方。

In his article published in The National Interest on December 15, the scholar, professor and contributor lays many factors into the table.

在于12月15日发表在《国家利益》上的文章中，这位学者、教授和撰稿人列出了很多因素。

The People’s Liberation Army recently conducted a military exercise on Sunday where an H-6K bomber plane accompanied by two Su-30 fighter jets performed “encirclement” patrols close to the island, South China Morning Post reported.

据《南华早报》报道，近日，中国人民解放军于周日展开了一次军事演习，一架H-6K轰炸机在两架苏-30战斗机的陪同下在台湾岛附近进行了“环岛”巡逻。

Military observer, Antony Wong Dong, who is based in Macau, called the exercise very unusual.

驻澳门的军事观察员安东尼·王·东称，此次演习极不寻常。

Another factor that Farley mentioned in the article is the recent statement coming from a Chinese diplomatic leader, saying the country would attack Taiwan if it allows a United States Navy ship to dock in Kaohsiung.

法利在这篇文章中提到的另外一个因素是中国一位外交领导人近日发表的声明，他说，如果台湾允许美国军舰停靠高雄，那么中国将会攻击台湾。

“The day that a U.S. Navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force,” diplomat Li Kexin said at an event in the Chinese embassy in Washington on December 8, Reuters reported.

据路透社报道，12月8日，外交官李克新在中国驻华盛顿大使馆一次活动上表示：“美国军舰抵达高雄之日，就是我解放军武力统一台湾之时！”

Farley noted that while this perception can still be considered premature, it still remains quite dangerous.

法利指出，尽管这种看法仍被认为是不成熟的，但它仍相当危险。

The United States, however, responded with “equanimity,” said Farley, as it condemns China’s move and officially announcing a major arms sale to Taiwan worth $1.45 billion, while the former appealed to the latter’s government to tighten its sanctions to the hermit nation, North Korea.

法利说道，然而，美国的反应“平静”，它谴责中国的举动，并且正式宣布向台湾出售价值14.5亿美元的武器，同时呼吁中国政府加强其对闭关自守国家朝鲜的制裁。

“For a relationship that demands predictability and careful diplomacy, important players in China and the United States seem eager to embrace uncertainty, which could lead to devastating conflict,” Farley wrote.

法利写道：“对于一段需要可预测性和谨慎外交的关系，中国和美国的重要参与者们似乎渴望不确定性，这可能会导致毁灭性的冲突。”

（来源：爱语吧）