Asia-Pacific stock markets saw little change on Wednesday, following muted rises for major U.S. indexes overnight.

亚太股市周三基本持平，跟随隔夜主要美国股指小幅上涨走势。

Wednesday’s Big Theme

周三的市场焦点

China’s yuan has outperformed other major currencies against the U.S. dollar over the past six months, against a backdrop of ongoing trade concerns and heightened stock volatility. But the yuan’s resilience might not last long, as the greenback makes a comeback.

尽管过去六个月中贸易担忧持续存在且股市波动加剧，但人民币兑美元的表现好于其他主要货币。不过，随着美元反弹，人民币的抗跌性可能难以持久。

What’s Happening

人民币近期表现

During the recent selloff of emerging-market currencies, the yuan stood out, falling at a relatively modest pace against the dollar. The yuan—which in February reached its highest level since China’s central bank devalued it in August 2015—has pulled back a bit in recent months during the dollar rally. But demand for the yuan has continued, due to continued inflows of capital into China’s equity and bond markets.

在新兴市场货币最新一轮抛售潮中，人民币表现抢眼，兑美元跌幅相对较小。人民币兑美元在2月份触及2015年8月中国央行引导人民币贬值以来的最高水平。在美元走高期间，人民币近几个月出现小幅回落。但由于资本持续流入中国股市和债市，人民币需求持续坚挺。

The central parity rate of the yuan on Wednesday strengthened 0.2% to 6.4040 against the dollar, its biggest one-day boost since May 14.

周三的人民币兑美元中间价上调0.2%，至1美元兑人民币6.4040元，为5月14日以来的最大单日上调幅度。

Market Reaction

市场反应

James Cheo, a senior investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, said support for the yuan has been bolstered by both the Stock Connect trading link with Hong Kong—which allows foreign investors to trade bonds and equities in Mainland China—and the MSCI Index’s recent inclusion of yuan-denominated A-shares.

新加坡银行(Bank of Singapore)高级投资策略师James Cheo称，沪港通和深港通以及最近A股纳入MSCI指数增强了人民币的支撑力度。外国投资者能够通过沪港通和深港通交易中国内地的债券和股票。

He said persistent bond inflows had likely been driven by allocations into yuan-denominated bonds by investors and reserve managers—boosted by Bloomberg LP’s March decision to add yuan-denominated bonds to its Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index starting April 2019.

Cheo表示，资本持续流入债市可能是受投资者和储备管理机构将资金配置到人民币计价债券中推动，而彭博(Bloomberg L.P., BBG.XX) 3月份决定从2019年4月起将人民币计价债券纳入彭博巴克莱全球综合指数(Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index)之举则起到了增强这种资金配置趋势的作用。

“The strength of [the renminbi] can hold up provided China data remains strong and U.S.-China trade tensions don’t flare up,” he said.

Cheo指出，只要中国经济数据依然强劲，且美中贸易紧张局势不出现恶化，人民币的强势就可能维持下去。

But UBS said it doesn’t expect the yuan’s strength to last, as “slower economic activity in China is likely to set the yuan up for an underperformance” versus other major currencies.

但瑞银(UBS)表示，该行预计人民币的强势难以持久，原因是中国经济活动放缓可能使人民币表现不及其他主要货币。

UBS expects the yuan in trade-weighted terms to drop 4-5% over the next year, reversing most recent gains. Bank of America Merrill Lynch also stayed bearish on the yuan, keeping its forecast profile for thr USD/CNY pair unchanged at 6.60 for the end of this quarter—versus the current 6.396—citing dollar strength and the negative effects of deleveraging efforts on China growth and credit risks.

瑞银预计未来一年的人民币贸易加权汇率将下跌4%-5%，回吐近期的大部分涨幅。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)也看跌人民币，将该公司对本季度末美元/人民币汇率的预期维持在6.60元不变，理由是美元走强以及去杠杆给中国经济增长和信贷风险带来的不利影响。美元/人民币最新报6.3900元左右。

（来源：爱语吧）