敦促合并

So much for the sepulchral calm of a German Sunday.
德国周天阴森的平静就到此为止了。
On March 17th, after months of prodding from the German government and chatter in the financial press,
3月17日，在德国政府的督促以及金融媒体的喋喋不休下，
Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, Germany's two largest listed lenders, said that they would begin exploring a merger.
德国商业银行和德意志银行，德国最大的两家上市贷方表示他们将开始寻求合并。

A deal, both banks are at pains to add, is far from certain. If it happens, it would create Europe's third-biggest bank by assets,
这两家银行费尽心思添加的一项交易还远不能确定下来。如果合并，这将成为欧洲资产规模第三大的银行，
behind Britain's HSBC (which does most of its business in Asia) and France's BNP Paribas.
仅此于英国的汇丰银行（其主要业务在亚洲）以及法国的法国巴黎银行。
It would also join together two chronic underperformers. Last year Deutsche's return on equity, a puny 0.4%, was its first positive figure for four years.
这也将是两家习惯性表现欠佳者的结合。去年，德意志银行的净资产收益率（仅为0.4%）是四年来首个正数。
Commerzbank's has bettered last year's anaemic 3% only once since 2011.
自2011年来，德国商业银行的净资产收益率高于去年的3%，但也只有这一次。
Combining two struggling banks looks like an improbable method of creating the robust "national champion" of which German ministers have been dreaming.
将两家苦苦挣扎的公司合并就像是一种不可行方法，用于创造德国部长们一直梦寐以求的强健“全国冠军”。
Years of ultra-low interest rates and an overcrowded banking market—
多年的超低利率和过于拥挤的银行市场—
most of which is served by public-sector and co-operative lenders—have sapped profitability,
大部分由国营部门和合作贷方提供服务—已经削弱了盈利能力，
even though both Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are well capitalised and amply liquid. A merger is unlikely to change that.
虽然德国商业银行和德意志银行资本雄厚且资金流动充足。一次合并不可能改变。
Encouragement from Berlin alone is not—or should not be—reason to merge,
仅仅是来来自政府的鼓励不是—或是不应该是—合并的理由，
although the government is Commerzbank's biggest shareholder, with 15%.
虽然政府是德国商业银行最大的股东，持股15%。
The right gauge is what all the shareholders of both banks would stand to lose or gain.
正确的测量标准是两家银行的股东将得到或失去什么。
You might suppose that Deutsche's should be keen on a fresh start. Its fall from grace since the financial crisis is a cautionary tale often told:
你可能认为德意志银行应该渴望一个新的开始。它自金融危机以来的失宠成了老生常谈的警世故事：
its share price has fallen by 90% since 2007; not until 2015 did it accept that its global moneymaking machine, aka its investment bank, was kaputt;
自2007年起其股价下跌90%；直到2015年它才接受了其全球赚钱机器，也称投资银行，崩溃的事实；
it is on its fourth chief executive in as many years; and so on.
它在四年里换了三个总裁等等。
But its smaller neighbour may have the better (or rather, less bad) end of the bargain.
但其较小的邻居或许能在该交易中获得更好的（更精确地说是没那么糟糕的）结果。
To both banks, a merger brings the promise of scale, especially in retail banking.
对两家银行来说，一次合并带来了规模的承诺，尤其是在小额银行业务方面。
Deutsche's share of the German market— adding its upmarket "blue" Deutsche Bank brand to the more basic Postbank—is around 11%,
德意志银行占德国市场份额—将其高端‘蓝色’德意志银行品牌添加到更基础的邮政银行—约为11%，
according to Autonomous Research; Commerzbank's is 8%.
独立调查机构 Autonomous Research表示，德国商业银行为8%。
With one-fifth of the market, a combined entity would be by far the biggest in Germany, maybe enough to exert some pricing power.
有了五分之一的市场份额，到目前为止一个合并实体将成为德国最大的实体，或许大到足以运用一些定价权。

Cutting costs—for instance by closing branches—might take out 30% of Commerzbank's cost base, according to Magdalena Stoklosa of Morgan Stanley.
削减成本—例如关闭分支—或许可以节省德国商业银行30%的基本开支，摩根史坦利投资公司的Magdalena Stoklosa表示。
Should the pair come to talking about takeover terms,
两家银行应该开始谈论收购条款，
Commerzbank's bargaining position looks far stronger than it could have dreamed of a few years ago.
德国商业银行的谈判地位看起来比几年前就能梦想到的更加牢固。
Neither bank can be called highly valued: the stockmarket prices Deutsche at a paltry 24% of net book value and Commerzbank at 31%.
两家银行都不能被称为高价值：德意志银行股票市场价格不足帐面净值的24%，德国商业银行是31%。
But so far has Deutsche fallen that its market capitalisation is now just twice Commerzbank's, against six times as much in 2013.
但到目前为止德意志银行市场总值在2013年下跌6次，现在其市场总值仅为德国商业银行的两倍。
Even taking into account Deutsche's talent for attracting trouble, for Commerzbank the ratio may not get better than this.
即便是将德意志银行引起麻烦的天赋考虑在内，对德国商业银行而言，这一比率或许也不会比这个更好。
Besides extra bulk and the chance to serve more of the Mittelstand—Germany's myriad, mainly family-owned, companies—
除了额外买卖和服务更多中小型企业的机会之外—德国无数的、主要是家族所有的公司—
Commerzbank offers Deutsche improved funding. Commerzbank relies more than Deutsche on deposits,
德国商业银行能提供给德意志银行增加的资金。德国商业银行比德意志银行更依赖于存款，
which are cheaper and stickier than funds from financial markets.
存款比金融市场上的资金更便宜且难对付。
Its 311bn euros ($363bn) of deposits at the end of September were worth 63% of its adjusted assets; Deutsche's 553bn euros, 52%.
截止9月，其3110亿欧元（3630亿美元）的存款占其调整后资产63%；德意志银行为5530亿欧元，占52%。
So deep have been Deutsche's woes that for most of the past three years its five-year credit-default-swap spreads—
德意志银行的悲痛如此深沉—在过去三年中的大部分时间中，其5年信用违约交换利差—
the cost of insurance against its failure to honour a bond—have been wider, often by half a percentage point or more, than those of the smaller bank.
因没能遵守兑现债券而支付的保险成本—已经扩大，通常是半个百分点或比那些小型银行要多。
Last month it sold bonds at steepish yields.
上个月，它以起伏陡峭的收益率出售了其债券。
Although a merged bank would have more heft at home,
虽然一家合并银行在国内更具重要性，
it is hard to see what a takeover could do to restore Deutsche's fortunes as a global investment bank.
但很难看清一次收购能为恢复德意志银行作为一家全球投资银行的地位做些什么。
Having wisely given up its own international investment-banking ambitions, Commerzbank has little to offer.
已经明智放弃国际投资银行雄心的德国商业银行已经没什么能够提供的了。
Admittedly, Deutsche is not alone: since 2012, notes a new report by Morgan Stanley,
无可否认，德意志银行并不孤单；自2012年以来，摩根史坦利投资公司在一份新报告中写道，
European investment banks have lost nine percentage points of market share in America,
欧洲投资银行已经失去了美国9%的市场份额，
while Wall Street firms have gained the same amount in Europe.
而华尔街公司已经在欧洲获得了同等的份额。
Though Deutsche is still Europe's biggest, as well as its homeland's flag-bearer, it will need more than a merger to patch its tattered standard.
虽然德意志银行仍是欧洲最大的，也是德国最大的旗手，但要修补其破碎的标准，需要的不仅仅是一次合并。


来源：经济学人

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