朝鲜放弃核武器,难道他真的屈服了么?

导读:朝鲜领导人金正恩表示,朝鲜将关闭核试验设施,并暂停远程导弹试验。这意味着平壤愿意在与美韩总统的会谈前夕作出让步。但是朝鲜真的是屈服了么,抑或是短时间的退让,我们不得而知。

朝鲜放弃核武器,难道他真的屈服了么?_最新英语新闻

On a dark February night, the trucks unloaded their contraband near Hyesan, a North Korean town across a narrow river from China. As border guards looked the other way, workers used carts to pull the cargo of metal ore — tungsten, lead, zinc, copper and gold concentrates, all banned from export under United Nations sanctions — across the frozen river. By sunrise, all that was left were tire tracks and footprints across the river’s frozen surface.

二月,一个黑魆魆的夜晚,一辆辆卡车正在朝鲜惠山卸私货,这里与邻国隔一条窄河相望。边防在边境对面看着,工人们用手推车把钨、铅、锌、铜和金等金属精矿推过上冻的河面,这些都是联合国制裁中禁止出口的。太阳升起后,只剩下冰面上的车辙和脚印。

A North Korean witness told an acquaintance living in South Korea that ore, as well as other materials, was being smuggled into China at the crossing almost every night. He said smugglers also headed the other way, moving sugar, flour and 50-kilogram sacks of fertilizers into North Korea.

一个朝鲜人对韩国的熟人说,几乎每天晚上,矿石和其他材料都被弄到邻国去。他说走私者有来有回,把糖、面粉和50公斤一袋的化肥拉回朝鲜。

There is growing evidence that tough new sanctions imposed on North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons and missile programs have begun to bite, and bite hard. Factories have closed because of a lack of raw materials, fishermen have deserted their boats and military units are resorting to charcoal-engine vehicles and even ox-driven carts for transport.

越来越多的证据表明,为阻止朝鲜核武器和导弹项目,对该国新施加的严厉制裁开始奏效,且效果显著。因为缺少原材料,工厂纷纷关张,渔民已搁浅了船只,军队改用烧煤的车辆,甚至开始使用牛车作为交通工具。

But the elaborate efforts to smuggle goods in and out of North Korea are among the signs that the closed, secretive country is finding ways to cope.

但朝鲜煞费苦心,偷着往来运送商品,这成为一个封闭、秘密的国度设法应对制裁的标志之一。

The North is also responding with patriotic appeals and belt-tightening, and by prioritizing the allocation of resources to the military and political elite. Despite shortages, exchange rates and key consumer prices are stable, and there is no sign of an approaching famine, according to recent visitors and North Korean defectors who remain in contact with people inside the country.

朝鲜的应对办法还包括诉诸爱国主义和勒紧裤腰带,将资源优先分配给军队和政治精英。最近造访朝鲜的人和仍然与家里有联系的朝鲜叛逃者说,尽管物资短缺,汇率和关键消费品价格保持了稳定,没有即将发生饥荒的迹象。

President Trump and South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, say their policy of “maximum pressure” on the government of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, has helped bring him to the bargaining table. Mr. Trump recently acknowledged that he sent the C.I.A. director, Mike Pompeo, to a secret meeting with Mr. Kim this month to lay the groundwork for the first-ever meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea.

特朗普总统和韩国总统文在寅说,对朝鲜领导人金正恩政府的“极限施压”政策把他逼到了谈判桌前。特朗普先生最近承认他本月派中情局局长密会金先生,为美朝两国领导人首次会晤打前站。

On Thursday, Mr. Moon said that Mr. Kim removed a key obstacle to negotiations with the United States by ceasing to demand the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea as a condition for denuclearizing his country.

周四,文先生说金先生消除了同美国谈判的一个重要障碍,朝鲜不再把要求美军从韩国撤军作为去核的一个条件。

It is far from clear, however, whether the pain from sanctions is forcing Mr. Kim to make concessions, and whether it could be enough to drive him to trade away his nuclear arsenal.

然而,是否是制裁迫使金先生做出让步,是否制裁足以让他以放弃核武器作为交换,这远不清楚。

Many analysts and North Korean defectors have doubts about whether economic pressure alone, no matter how painful, can change the behavior of an impoverished, tightly controlled nation that has endured extreme hardship before.

许多分析人士和朝鲜叛逃者对此表示怀疑,只有经济压力,不论多残酷,也未必能改变这个曾历经困苦、控制严厉的贫困国度的行为。

Mr. Kim seemed to reinforce that perception when he recently warned his people that they must be prepared to overcome further burdens. “Our revolution faced the harshest-ever challenges,” Mr. Kim said in his New Year’s Day speech.

金先生貌似强化了这种看法,他最近警告人民,必须做好准备克服更大的压力。“我们的革命面临着前所未有的艰难挑战,”金正恩在新年讲话中说。

“If you think the North Koreans would revolt or the regime would collapse because of sanctions, you don’t know anything about the North Koreans,” said Kang Mi-jin, a North Korean defector who collects North Korean consumer prices for the South’s central Bank of Korea. “These are people who survived the famine by eating weeds and even talk proudly about it.”

“如果你认为因为制裁,朝鲜人会起来反叛或政权会崩溃,那你根本不了解朝鲜人,”为韩国央行收集朝鲜消费品价格资料的朝鲜叛逃者姜美珍(音)说。“有人靠吃草捱过了饥荒,说起来还挺自豪。”

But the latest sanctions are causing pain in a way that earlier rounds did not. Some analysts suggest that changes within North Korea, such as the formation of a new middle class, and Mr. Kim’s own promises to improve the lives of his long-suffering people, could make him more willing to give up his nuclear weapons if he can receive convincing guarantees of his government’s survival.

但最新一轮制裁造成了前几轮所没有的痛苦。有分析人士认为朝鲜内部发生了变化,新中产阶级形成,且金先生本人承诺要提高苦难人民的生活,这使他更愿意放弃核武器,只要能确保政府存续下去。

”We are starting to see the first major test of the North Korean economy under Kim Jong-un,” said Curtis Melvin, a researcher at the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“我们看到在金正恩治下,对朝鲜经济进行了第一次重要试验,”约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院美朝研究所研究员柯蒂斯.梅尔文说。

(来源:爱语吧)


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